T O P

Everybody’s always talking about people overvaluing rookie draft picks... Tell us about a time when you purposely overpaid for a rookie pick because you believed in the player. How did it work out?

Everybody’s always talking about people overvaluing rookie draft picks... Tell us about a time when you purposely overpaid for a rookie pick because you believed in the player. How did it work out?

HeroOfOne

I sold my soul for Saquon.


BlueMerleShelties

Same. I traded David Johnson and my own high 1st round pick (he used on Rashaad Penny) for Saquon in 2018. Zero regret. I thought Saquon was the 2nd coming of Barry Sanders.


mrubuto22

that's a steal man


Teddy-Bongwater5

definitely turned out to be but at the time, David Johnson was the RB2 behind Todd Gurley. Would've been seen as a massive overpay.


glen_ko_ko

David Johnson alone was worth more than 1.01 back then


ubspider

Im thinking of trading 3 first round picks starting with 2021 through 2023. Would you advise it or advise against it? I'm in win now, with 5 rookie running backs from last draft. I think I can win now and win for the next three years, making my first round picks late in a 10 team league


phila18

If you find someone that will take that for him, I say do it


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Jericcho

You traded two first round picks and still got Ja'Marr Chase?


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csmartin85

Sounds like a Taco league honestly but more power to you


mockmaster

I had to pay 1.05 and a future first to get to 1.02 (plus a future fourth back) to get up and land Chase. Granted I overpaid, but Hunt/Smith/future 2nd is insanely low for 1.02 IMO.


ubspider

Very nice team. I feel like you're going to have a very fun 2021 season. Good luck to you good sir. Now I feel like I should give up more to the guy, truth be told, I dont want to screw the guy im trading, I want him to stay interested because he was in last place last year. Honestly keeping Barkley wont really help him, so I'm thinking a bunch of draft picks will


nightnick7

Tough spot. But you shouldn’t give up more than a fair deal because you feel bad. If the guy loses interest, can find someone to replace him. Yea I hope I win this year, 6 later picks 2022/2023


ubspider

He's the kind of guy who will lose interest and still pay $100 a year just to help us keep the league going lol. He really is a good guy, but you're right, gotta play it fair for the other league members and myself.


realmarcusjones

Yeah I’ve had that feeling before, screwed a guy over without really trying to but threw him a bone in a different trade and micro managed his team for him. One of my best buds and I like when people are engaged


sendphotopls

I think you made a great trade. 2021 & 2022 are such poor rookie classes, you're not finding anyone of Saquon-caliber so might as well make the push for him.


Turd_Salad92

I got Saquon and Gallup for Gibson, Diontae Johnson, and the 2021 1.07. You might be able to get him for only two firsts.


ubspider

Wow, that’s a savvy trade on your part. I think you won for sure


gotcam189

Same, but for Gurley. Something like 1.05, a 2nd, Keenan Allen, and future picks for 1.01. Sucks I only got a couple of good years out of him, but it was absolutely worth it.


ApprehensiveTrust779

The year Zeke came into the league. I paid Thomas Rawls and Alshon Jeffrey for Zeke and a 2017 2nd (turned into Chris Godwin)


allsops

I think the guy on the other side of that trade was involved in a Dynasty Reddit thread


brain2900

I feel like I read that at some point


ubspider

I think you're right! I definitely remember a trade exactly like this, and it was being brought up just a couple weeks ago


RockinMadRiot

It was me on the other side of it haha. Nice to know it's come full circle haha


dubdubdub3

Are you [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/4o7eoz/trade_thomas_rawls_and_alshon_jeffery_for_ezekiel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) ?


mdmarks2017

r/agedlikemilk


whadisabout

Strong reminder that most people don’t know what they’re talking about


ApprehensiveTrust779

It seems like it could be!


iTITAN34

What the shit


RockinMadRiot

So that's who that pick turned into? If you are who I think you are, I really lost that trade when I took it.


ApprehensiveTrust779

It happens. You'll win some. Youll lose some. All goes around in circles I think.


Juuless_Joe_Jackson

I was just reading the thread on the other side of it! Everyone thought you got fleeced. What made you go against group think at the time?


ApprehensiveTrust779

Zeke basically I saw as an insane talent and thought he would be better for me over Alshon. Rawls I wasn't massive on, and banked on him failing although I really liked him. And it worked out pretty well for me.


Juuless_Joe_Jackson

Can you tell us a few of your other notable dynasty trades? Curious to see how your process translates with other trades


ArkNoob69

I loved Rawls lol.


2confused2hamster

Sweaty Rawls was a solid team name for a bit


mfrank27

To The Sweat Drop Down My Rawls if you were on a platform that allowed that many characters


92tilinfinityand

Lol


everyoneismyfriend

Have a current offer of Barkley for my zeke and Keenan allen. Thoughts?


ApprehensiveTrust779

I love Keenan. Especially with Herbert. Zeke I think is still a top RB. Only thing I dislike about saquon is the giants. I'm not sure the loss of Keenan makes up for the difference in Zeke and saquon


alex100383

I wouldn't, especially if you're competing. Barkley's rookie year was insane. But followed up with a barely top 10 season in 2019 and then of course last year was a wash. Zeke has been a consistent top 10 RB for 5 years. should have a year or two left of being fringe top 10 and Keenan is too much to give up to bridge the age gap. If it's the kind of deal you want to make, I would explain it the way I did above, and see what the other manager is willing to add in with Barkley. Ask him first before saying what you want. The minimum I would accept is mid second type of value or maybe even try to swap your second for his first.


CuminInmybutt

What makes you think he was barely top 10 in 2019? Dude missed four games and still was top ten. He would have been top 5 easily had he been healthy all year


alex100383

lol CumInmybutt... that's great. you make a fair point. I just think even if Barkley comes in at RB4-6 and Zeke at RB10-12 for the next two seasons, I'd rather have Zeke and Keenan over Saquon since I'm looking at a 2-3 year window at most.


FreePizzaDay

Last year I made it known that I wanted out from Chris Carson. The correct move was probably to hold him, as I was still competing and he would have been an ideal depth piece. But I hate bag-holding on aging RBs and wanted out. After shopping him to everyone, I end up trading him straight up for the 1.08, which was the best offer I got. I then traded 1.08 and 2.11 for 1.04. It turned into Swift. The guy I traded Carson to won last year. The guy I traded 1.08 and 2.11 turned them into Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert. I am still happy with Swift and his potential but: 1. The person who traded for the vet got the piece they knew they needed to compete -- and did. 2. The owner I traded 1.04 to was rewarded for trading back. He got lucky probably, but obviously acquiring more picks over higher picks *can* work out, especially if it's a strong class. Last year it was pretty hard to have traded for a 1st rounder and been disappointed (RIP Ruggs and Reagor) but in past years that is rarely the case.


donshuggin

I play in a complicated "La Liga" format that features multi-year contracts, salary inflation, and a salary cap. In 2019 I traded Dalvin Cook with a couple of years left on a fair contract for 2020 1.08 and DeVante Adams on the last year of an overpriced contract (effectively I freed up salary cap space for the owner I traded with). I used that 1.08 to draft..... Keyshawn Vaughn. Being a Patriots homer, reminiscing back to the days of LeGarrete Blount, I convinced myself Vaughn was going to be Brady's goal line caddy. Then the Bucs acquired Lenny, Jones played decently, and Vaughn was relegated to kick return duties. Icing on the cake? Jefferson went at 1.09


Kezia_Griffin

But Blount is like 40 pounds heavier than Vaughn...


44jayjay

The rare win-win-win trade


RemoteSenses

> I then traded 1.08 and 2.11 for 1.04 Why would anyone do this? Trade back 4 spots in the 1st round where you're in a spot to definitely get a really solid player all for a late 2nd?


SlightlyJason

I traded back from 1.1 & 1.2 in two different leagues to 1.5 because i think Williams is the best player in the draft. If you know your guy is gonna be there at a spot, why not pickup more picks?


RemoteSenses

I think that’s a way different story. You’re still likely getting a solid player in the top 5. Once you get towards the end of the first round results may vary greatly.


SlightlyJason

Though, if your guy is going 1.8 why not move back to 1.8?


Killua_EU

Huge difference between moving back to 5 and moving back to 8


SlightlyJason

Not really. If Williams was going around 1.8 I’d have done the same move. All that matters is getting your guy.


Oyb_

If they weren’t in love with anyone at the top of the draft why not? Every pick is a gamble, and adding another pick isn’t a bad thing. I don’t think they got quite enough either but the logic behind it makes sense. Clearly in this case it worked out


NotFromSaidCountry

How many managers are in the league? I’m very surprised Justin Jefferson fell to 2.11 ... I think he went 1.11 in my league’s rookie draft.


abah3765

In the OP's comment, Jefferson went 1.08 and Herbert went 2.11.


FreePizzaDay

This is correct. 1QB.


shakeszoola

Justin went 1.08 and Justin went 2.11.


NotFromSaidCountry

Haha, oddly enough. This got me to reread it and realize my mistake :)


elendegeneres

Someone in my league just paid Justin Jefferson and the 1.06 that turned into Waddle to move up to the 1.02 and take Pitts. The only way this pans out for him is if Waddle and J Jeff both get in car wrecks and Pitts is actually Thanos.


MN_abomb

He gave Justin Jefferson to move up 4 spots in a rookie draft?


elendegeneres

That is correct. I was absolutely fuming in chat. He tried justifying his trade and also tried flaming me for paying the 1.08 for T-Hock. That 1.08 turned into Sermon. I feel good about my trade


LuchiniSam

The most surprising part of your story is this taco didn't already have the 1.01.


elendegeneres

We did a rookie draft after our startup draft to make it fun. Instead this fucking happened.


Rad_Centrist

You made a good trade. Your leaguemate who gave up Jefferson did not. Big oof.


elendegeneres

Bad way to start off a Dynasty league


dista21

This is one of the worst trades I’ve ever seen


elendegeneres

I have a feeling this will go down as the worst trade I ever witness in my Fantasy Football career.


PreparationStock2718

😆🤣😂😹😆🤣 That can't be real. How many years has that league been going and what's the buy in


elendegeneres

$100 buy in, we had our startup draft this year but the guy who traded J Jeff has played dynasty in another league for 3yrs


Oyb_

Found the Taco


Killua_EU

A top 5 dynasty WR to move up 4 spots and take a TE. I don’t veto but that one might deserve it. One of the worst I’ve ever seen.


PaulBlartFleshMall

That's league-breaking and should be reversed.


elendegeneres

I 100% agree but there isn't really anything I could do besides simply leave. And the commissioner is a good friend of mine that is on my once a week trivia team so things would get pretty awkward.


Waddlow

That is horrendous.


Feweddy

That’s veto worthy. At least give the rest of the league the chance to outbid him, wth


elendegeneres

This league was set up by a commissioner that firmly believes in accepting all trades as long as both parties agree. Now I'm wondering if I ever should have joined lol. His reasoning is he wants to push trades through because people could make a trade on a Friday because of injuries and not have that player by Sunday for play time so he wants trades done as soon as they happen.


Killua_EU

Auto processing of trades is fine, but IMO league-breaking trades should be subject to reversal


RodgersHasNoFamily

“League breaking trades” hardly ever end up breaking leagues like people say.


MrJusticeWargrave

No it isn’t.


Feweddy

Disagree. If this kind of trade happens too often people will get pissed and lose interest in the league. It arbitrarily messes with the balance and fairness (or perception thereof) of the competition and ruins the fun.


MrSweatyBawlz

I'd take Jefferson over 1.02 and 1.06 tbh


usgojoox

TE Premium?


elendegeneres

Nope. And here is proof of the trade. http://imgur.com/a/ASnDH68


Tanman7211

Jfc that’s so bad. Jefferson alone is worth more than 1.02. I’ll never understand why people sell low on a guy after an unbelievable rookie season. Someone in my league once traded Saquon right after his rookie season for Theilen and Robert Woods.


elendegeneres

That guy is an absolute fucking smooth brain. I was so pissed off because the guy he traded had a solid team already and now is looking like a juggernaut. I hate league breaking trades.


sendphotopls

i mean.... he definitely had a better year than the saquon owner last year lol


pechinburger

Well Barkley is obviously the better talent and value in a vacuum but over the past 2 seasons he's won that trade and scored way more points by having Theilen and Woods


Killua_EU

I’m shocked you don’t have people leaving in droves. I think I’d be bailing on the league of that went down.


JJBAREATHAGOD

lmaoooo


gapmoeisjustice

Someone in my league back in 2017 traded 1.10 + 2018 1st to move up to 1.06 to take Samaje Perine. Remember it pretty vividly because I was sitting around at 1.07 getting ready to take Perine - and in hindsight he helped me out quite a bit by taking the possibility out of my hands. I ended up trading out of 1.07 for a 2nd (Curtis Samuel), 3rd (Cooper Kupp), and 2018 1st. Oddly enough, the 2018 pick ended up becoming 1.08 and the exact same guy moved up in front of me to take Royce Freeman (who I was planning on drafting) - and I ended up with Courtland Sutton instead.


MyDogIsACoolCat

Guy in my league gave up his 2021 1.08 and 2022 first to move up two spots and draft Herbert last year. Dude got crucified by the league when he made the move.


billybuntinton

I really wanted Jalen Hurts last year’s SF rookie draft and didn’t have a 3rd rd pick. I gave away Phillip Rivers and Jonu Smith to draft Hurts at 3.02.


elendegeneres

Wow. Glad that worked out for you though


Killua_EU

A 2nd round QB fell to 3.2 in your SF rookie draft? That’s crazy, I was seeing him going around there in my 1QB leagues.


billybuntinton

Looking back at the draft I don’t really see anyone that was drafted higher than him that was a reach at the time. In hindsight guys like Vaughn, Moss, Bryan Edwards, and Dillon all went ahead of him and don’t look like better selections now. I think I got lucky.


brain2900

Last off-season, after rookie draft when the WFT cut AP and it was apparent they were all in on Gibson, I traded this year's 1st and 2nd for him. I was runner up😥. I guess the verdict is still being written.


fleebschleeb

No way can you get him for a 1st and 2nd now


brain2900

Nice to hear. Haven't price checked him lately, but I got razzed a bit by the league for what seemed a pretty big overpay at the time, seeing as he was a 2nd round pick last year for the other guy.


alex100383

Same exact trade happened in my league, and the league reacted the same way... and the manager ended up getting second place lol. An overpay at the time but I don't think the verdict is still being written as you say, you won that trade, especially since your picks ended up being so late.


Killua_EU

So you traded 1.11 and 2.11 for a guy who is now a consensus top 15 RB? I think the verdict is pretty clear...


brain2900

Yeah I guess when you put it like that it's a no brainer. 😃


92tilinfinityand

I just traded three firsts to move up to get Lance because my team is in pretty great shape depth wise and I want to take a shot in what I believe to be a true generational talent in SF. Also about to pay the piper to grab Javonte Williams, and will likely significantly overpay to trade back into the draft to grab Khalil Herbert and Chris Evans to park on my taxi squad (tho smaller potatoes!)


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92tilinfinityand

So we can probably glaze over the knocks on Lance since we are all familiar with them... bad competition, only a full season of starts, young and raw, needs to improve vision. What I see when I see Lance as my QB1 for fantasy: is a player who is 20 years old, is how you would design a QB in a lab and supposedly has the drive and mind that any coach would covet in their signal caller. The dude turned down D-1 offers because he knew he had the tools and drive to make it the the next level as a QB. He went 1-AA but he also went to a 1-AA school that has produced more NFL quarterbacks in the last decade than half the schools in the SEC. That kind of pedigree can’t be ignored. We don’t know his tape time, but Lance is a very crafty runner and a bulldozer in the open field. I see a lot of RPO red zone work for him and getting those goal line rushes that Cam and Allen live off of. He’s not fun to tackle and he’s not easy to get hands on. Not freakish like Kyler or Lamar, but just deceptively the elusive for his size. He has a rifle arm. Not a Wilson, Mahomes or Rodgers flick of the wrist off the back foot jaw-dropper arm, but an arm that will allow him to make every single throw a QB could ask for. Now let’s talk about landing spot. I legit don’t think a Top 3 QB could go to a better landing spot than the Niners. Elite coaching. Great front office. Young talent on both sides of the ball. Let’s remember what Shanahan was able to do with a mobile QB in RG3 too... it opens up his offense in ways that has to get him extremely excited. If Lance is a football savant like GMs were saying, then him and Shanny can be a match made in Heaven for a decade, constantly adjusting and tinkering the offense to stay ahead of the game. That makes me the most excited. Coaching and situation are key in the NFL (as a Jets fan... you have to trust me here) and Lance landed in the best one.


JokicandMurray

Lance truly does have all the tools of a generational QB in today’s game. The issue is that you just can’t tell how well he will be able to read and play against actual defenses. People still don’t understand how much of being a QB is mentally understanding what the defense is doing and where guys should be. It’s the reason Fields fell in the draft and the reason Jones went higher then his physical traits would indicate he should go (cause he already has a good understanding). If he figures it out he will be amazing, but it’s in my opinion 60/40 he does.


LamarcusAldrige1234

I fell in love with Javonte this offseason. I traded the 6th pick in our rookie draft, as well as Mike Davis and the 16th pick, to move up 1 spot to 5th overall to get him. Overpay ik but I am loaded at WR and I genuinely think he has RB1 potential


shakeszoola

In a 1QB, I don't think that is a overpay at all. There is a pretty clear tier break at 5.


usgojoox

Which 2 of the 7 are not in your top 5 tier? Pitts/Chase/Harris/Travis/Javonte/Smith/Jaylen?


shakeszoola

1. Chase 2. Harris 3. ETN 4. Williams 5. Pitts I don't blame anyone for switching any of the 2-5 around. I believe it's clearly chase on the top


mockmaster

I think Waddle has a case to make it 6, but yeah, this is it for me. IMO among non-QBs: Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase Tier 1b: ETN, Pitts, Williams, Harris Tier 2: Waddle Tier 3: Smith, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Bateman, Sermon


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mockmaster

Personally, I disagree. I had several issues outside of weight with his tape that knocked him to my WR5 pre-draft and WR4 post-draft. But I know others don’t necessarily share my opinion on Smith, so if you or others want to disagree and include him in the tier above, that’s fine, they’re your rankings and scouting is less objective and more subjective, so people differ on these things. But again, like I said in my original comment, the list is **in my opinion** and how I had them tiered going into my rookie draft, and for me, Smith’s tape plus the concerns on weight put him in tier 3 among WRs behind Chase and Waddle.


Killua_EU

Surprised this has to be asked. Smith and Waddle are not sniffing the same tier as the top RBs, Chase and Pitts.


PreparationStock2718

yeah good deal on your part IMO


Ctroutm1

I am in love with trevor lawrence and I gave up my 1.2, 1.8, and 1.12 for the 1.1 and 3.6. That gives me Burrow and Lawrence as my 2 QBs, so hopefully I don't need to worry about QB for the next 15 years.


southpaw439

That will be my team as well. Got burrow 1.01 last year and somehow got 1.01 this year in the lottery (should have been 1.04). Now the thing is, I have 1.03, 1.06-08. I’m tempted to take another one of the top 4 QBs with one of my other picks


VermilionTiger

I overpaid for 1.07 because I wanted Darrell Henderson. I had traded for Gurley 4 or so months earlier and felt I had to hedge


TheRealPepito

You’ll love my story then. I traded my 2020 1st to get Darrell Henderson. That 2020 1st I gave away turned into cam Akers...


MasHamburguesa

Similar story for me, I traded 1.10 for Henderson last offseason, then Akers got drafted, and my 1.10 was used for the other guy to draft Justin Jefferson.


PreparationStock2718

Oh boy


never_clever_trevor

I overpaid for a few picks..I currently own 11 of 12 2023 1sts. I'll keep you posted.


Waddlow

Gotta get that last one. There's time.


never_clever_trevor

He's already said no. I offered my 24 1st, 3rd, and a player worth a secondish for his 23 1st and he said no. Funny part is, although it can change obviously by then, I would project him to have a very late pick in 23 and I went after it hard anyways.


Scherr12

Lol this is awesome. Who do you have left on your roster for notable players?


never_clever_trevor

It's a 12 team, sf, +.5ppr te league. Starting roster is in order and then notables, then picks. Mahomes, Ekeler, Gus Bus, Wee Higgins, Justin Jefferson, Gigantor, Tony Pollard, Curtis Samuel, Justin Herbert -- Jordan Love & Mac Jones -- 11 2023 1sts, 1 2023 2nd, 8 2023 3rds, 1 2024 2nd, 1 2024 3rd.


RodgersHasNoFamily

How? This seems like you’re in a league with absolute donuts if you’ve still got a roster like that and all of those picks.


BullyingBuildsChar

I traded 3 1sts to move up from 1.03 to 1.01 (so 4 1sts I guess) to draft Zeke who I considered the missing piece after losing in the Finals the previous year Turns out I was right since I won our last 4 Championships.. our first true Dynasty in our 20+ league history


Ruffryder24_KK

I'm about to overpay to trade up into the early 2nd round of my 1QB rookie draft to get a crack at Trey Lance's upside.


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Ruffryder24_KK

What'd it take to get to 2.04?


timy0215

Wasn’t risking him falling to 2.05 in my draft so I grabbed him at 1.11. Our league as a whole grabbed all the QBs pretty early (Lawrence at 1.08, Wilson at 1.09, Lance at 1.11, Fields at 2.03, Mac at 2.06). I’m happy with having Lance and Carter instead of Elijah Moore and hoping one of those QBs fell.


jlee3485

Did it twice this year during the rookie draft so we’ll see how it works out. I already had Tee Higgins on my team, but Ja’Marr Chase was BPA at 1.05 when I was picking. Drafted Chase. Thought having both Chase and Higgins on my team might limit my upside a bit, but was ok with it. However, when Jaylen Waddle (whom I absolutely love, was #6 on my big board going into our Superflex rookie draft) was still there at 1.09, I traded Higgins and my 3.06 for the 1.09 and drafted Waddle. Later in the 2nd round, I started talking trade with the guy that drafted Pitts in the 1st. He was lacking a 2nd starting QB. So I traded him Goff (my QB4), 2022 1st AND 2nd, and 2023 2nd to get Pitts and a 2022 3rd. I know it was an overpay, but all I gave up was my QB4 and future draft capital. My team is stacked and young. I’m set up to be a top contender for at least the next 2-3 years, but I didn’t have an elite tight end. I had Jonnu and Engram as my best TEs. So the deal made sense to me to risk a good amount of future draft capital and my QB4 to try to hit on an elite TE that could push my team over the top. Both overpays, but both in a way that I feel made sense for my roster.


chewbaccalaureate

Jonnu and Engram are definitely enough to be a top contender IMO, but you got your guy in Pitts. If you're not sold on those guys I would try to trade one for future picks to give yourself some future flexibility.


jlee3485

Truth be told, I didn’t have Jonnu until about an hour or so before I traded for Pitts. Guy with Jonnu really wanted Trautman and sent me Jonnu plus two third round picks in this year’s rookie draft for Trautman.


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DownToDTF

This story makes no fucking sense. Your WRs are DK, AJ, Godwin before AB, and KA - yet you go this far out of your way to draft one in a class that's absolutely loaded at RB... Nah. Calling bullshit on this obvious tall tale.


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RoyGood

Made several moves to turn over an old burnt out roster and aquired a late first and a first a year out, uses both of those picks to move up into the top 5 and take Nick Chubb. Not sure it was an overpay for the pick but I wanted Chubb and got him.


Kinginthe4th

A guy in my league traded Terry McLaurin and Justin Jefferson on draft night for Jerry Jeudy. He was super high on Jeudy and obviously no one saw Jefferson putting up what he did but he's got to be a bit raw about that one.


JMoeller2020

Just gave up 2 future firsts to acquire Etienne at the 1.07 in a SF rookie draft.


Rad_Centrist

Traded my early-mid second and next year's first to move back into the first to grab DK. I feel great about it, actually. I love me some DK.


bosnian_red

Took JT over Burrow or CEH at 1.01 in 2 SF rookie drafts (neither were my 1st overall, just traded for them). Was sweating a bit in the first half of the season over that choice, but then Burrow tore his ACL and Taylor stepped up and it felt vindicated.


Jericcho

Should have seen if you can get Burrow when he was first hurt for cheap.


kevinbstout

I pretty much have a rule not to roster expensive rookies (1st or 2nd round picks) until after I see them in some NFL games, so I trade away those picks. But I thought Sermon’s value this year didn’t align with the situation, so I made some moves (slightly less than a 22 1st in a bigger trade in one league and Dillon/Jones Jr in another). He was considered the 4th best RB prospect (I’ve seen some have him at 3), went to one of the best run offenses in the league, was traded up for, got round 3 capital, and didn’t fall below his rank as a prospect. In any other year, he would have gotten round 1 hype in either 1QB or SF but since “this year the RBs suck” he’s continuing with a round 2 value. That was worth the risk for me this year.


manbearpig520

If "this year the RBs suck" then wouldn't that mean he is getting drafted higher compared to other years? Why would he get drafted higher in a stronger class? He would have been RB8 or 9 last year.


kevinbstout

My point is the narrative about this year's RBs is driving his cost down, but from what I can tell the real tier break is either at Sermon or Carter. "RBs suck this year" has really been that the depth isn't there like last year. But that doesn't mean the guys at the top don't have talent. Sermon has the size, draft capital, and opportunity to become an RB1 but isn't being drafted at that upside. Honestly, his value is where I think most rookies should be at in dynasty. The bust rate is so high, I don't understand why more people don't trade away their picks for safer players. The 2nd round price for Sermon is a great balance of upside and low-ish price.


manbearpig520

>The 2nd round price for Sermon is a great balance of upside and low-ish price. Isn't that about the price he has been since the draft? Prior to that he was probably a 3rd. I don't mind Sermon. I actually wanted to get him but I didn't have a pick until the early 3rd in a 10 teamer and didn't feel strong enough about him to trade up. >"RBs suck this year" has really been that the depth isn't there like last year. But that doesn't mean the guys at the top don't have talent. I wouldn't group Sermon in with the top guys this year. I think it is Harris, Williams, and ETN and a clear drop off after that.


Waddlow

I had him in the same tier as NH/JW/ETN predraft so I was very excited about getting him in the mid to late second in every league. Then he goes to SF and suddenly everyone is on with him. He went high, high second at the latest in all my leagues. But I agree with your assessment of him. People think it's a reach to take him near the top 3 backs and I just disagree. I've also seen people on this sub call him this year's Vaughn, which is baffling to me. In my opinion, that is simply people seeing "third round pick moving up draft boards" and not at all taking into account the tape or athletic profiles of the players they are connecting. There's also, I feel, this disconnect of positional scarcity in dynasty rookie drafts. It's pretty clear to me that there is a top 13 in SF and Sermon is in it. The other three backs/Pitts/Chase/5 QBs/Waddle/Smith and then Sermon. Bateman is the only other one I could consider being in that tier, but right there, there is a tier break to me. People taking Moore/Marshall/Toney/ARSB/Rondale over him just are not valuing the positions correctly IMO. There are a hundred receivers in this league you could make a case for for a WR2 season. We are *lousy* with receivers. So much so, that we immediately write off ones that don't immediately produce. And really, we can get away with that, because every year there are 12 more coming in that we can all make good cases for. Just look at keeptradecut. Terrace Marshall is WR44. Denzel Mims is WR51. Why? Does Marshall have a better shot of breaking out than Mims? Doesn't Mims have a better chance of breaking out *and* a higher ceiling? They have the same draft capital, similar athletic profiles, similar speed, but Mims has a year of experience and doesn't have DJM and Robby Anderson, fresh off a WR2 season himself, on his team. The point is isn't to argue for Mims, but to point out that everyone has weirdly almost moved on from him haha. And if Marshall has an injury plagued rookie year, he will be cast aside for any of the 12-15 new rookie WRs next year that look awesome. As for running back? The scarcity is immense. There are not a hundred backs you can make a case for a RB2 season. There are barely even 40. KTC has Sermon at RB25. *There just aren't running backs.* So if our goal is to find *hits*, I don't see how Sermon is valued lower than 13. His chance to hit, if you could calculate something like that, *may* be a tiny bit lower than Moore's, for example. But it's not that much lower. Especially considering if Moore doesn't pop year one, his value will be lower than half the WR class next year anyway. And let's say both of them are hits. What's the ceiling? Would you rather have an RB1 hit or a WR2 hit?


Nwingman

Our 2024 picks just became tradeable, I sent my 2024 first for Elijah Moore. Definitely an overpay, maybe only 4-6 spots back from where that pick will manifest in a few years. But technically counts. lol


ArkNoob69

I don't think this was an overpay. Early 2nd in 2021 for a 2024 1st.


Nwingman

I tend to leverage my firsts for known commodities. So I feel like my money could've gone a little further. But you're right, it's actually pretty good value if it's adjusted for time.


NYgiantsfan89

Not an overpay at all. I look at picks 3 years out as almost nothing.


Great_Muffin5260

Prior to the actual NFL draft, I held the 1.05 in my SF league. Knowing I needed a QB (Mahomes, Jones, Hurts), I began to look at the likes of fields/Lance knowing one would fall (had good info that 1.03 was taking a RB). I absolutely was determined I’d take Lance, and had a good feeling he’d be there. After Lance went to the 49ers, I became concerned since my league was singing his praises. I have good WR depth, so I offered the guy with 1.02 the 1.05 and a WR (he ended up wanting Jeudy, who I considered my teams WR4). I wasn’t keen on parting with Jeudy, but really wanted my guy, so I just pulled the trigger. I know I overpaid, and may regret this one in the end, but being able to go Lance/Mahomes if Lance pans out to even an average QB, I’ll be happy. We will see!


hawkhawg

I thought Trent Richardson was can’t miss as they come in 2012. I had unbelievable trade offers for my pick and turned them all down.


Pr0v33

I traded Keenan, Deebo, Gerald Everett, and a 2021 2nd for Swift prior to week 1 last offseason. Got laughed at for an overpay, but based on current startup prices it was now a steal. The other team won the ship and my team is stacked now, so it was a win win I’d say.


Oyb_

I tried to overpay for Harris this year but it didn’t work. Dude turned down ARob, Jonnu, 2.09 and a 1st next year. He already had Barkley, Akers and Gibson but his best WR is Kupp in a 2RB 3WR 1Flex PPR. He still took Harris instead of Chase so “no one else could have him.” I suppose there’s a reason he had the 1.01


DownToDTF

Saved from your own stupidity. Be thankful.


Oyb_

I was talking about a deal had I gotten the 1.01 to trade it for the 1.04 and Jeudy. Would have put me in a spot to grab Etienne, Williams or Pitts knowing the top 3 would be Harris, Chase, Lawrence. It’s a 1QB but the third pick was an orphan who had brees and trubisky as their only QBs last year. Would have made the initial trade seem worth it but yeah. Probably for the best as I now have the Fields ARob Mooney stack


SerRickofGingerRoost

Lol your last sentence sums it up perfectly.


Oyb_

He has also now turned down two firsts next year, one of which should be very early, and Brandin Cooks for Akers. He’s beyond saving haha


NigerianFrightmare

I traded Trey Lance (2.03) and a 3rd (3.10) for back to back 2nd rounders to grab Chuba Hubbard. Grabbed Mac Jones with the other pick. I rarely trade up and this is my best story. I trade back far more often.


DownToDTF

😂 yikes


Snmcg12

I traded Davante Adam’s for the 1.02 straight up last year. I had 1.01 and wanted 1.02 as well. Took JT then J.K. I was really in love with dobbins.


Siessfires

12-team 1QB HPPR I traded 2022 1st-5th picks and 2023 1st and 2nd for the 1.4 in this year's draft for either Pitts or Etienne. I'm convinced both will be great and, combined with the 1.1 and 1.6, I will have a solid young team to carry me through the next two years.


Jericcho

Well, I just traded a second and Lockett to move from mid first to the 1.01. I was shocked at how easy it was to move all the way up. i feel like I'm one of those people that started with a paperclip and traded up to a car. Welcome to the team Chase! Please don't suck like the other WR I drafted in the first round.


jschi214

I traded Matt Forte and Jordy Nelson for the pick that turned into Todd Gurley. I think it worked out?? For a little while at least


MarcusDA

I paid up to get Kevin Jones. He looked to be a great RB early, but things didn’t last.


DaCousIsLoose

I paid Brandin Cooks and three projected late future firsts for Zeke 30 minutes before kickoff of week 1. Worked to get the 1.01 for several months and this was my all in offer. No regrets. He’s helped me win two chips.


findingcolinmochrie

12 team, superflex league: Two years ago (before the 2019 season) I had a good feeling about Mark Andrews and traded Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, and Anthony Miller for Jacoby Brissett, Andrews, and Devin Singletary. Got absolutely shredded in the group chat. Two years later I traded Andrews and a late 2nd at the deadline to a contender for an injured George Kittle and I'm very happy.


Signiference

This is in a redraft league, so not as relevant to the dynasty sub but Le’Veon Bell‘s rookie year I drafted him in the fourth round which was pretty unheard of at the time. I drafted him during the preseason game against Washington, proximately nine seconds before he went down with an ankle injury, took this huge leap of faith after looking at so much tape on him and was instantly smited. Didn’t lose faith though, and his first game, which was in London, I started him and he got me two touchdowns.


KennyMoose32

I overpaid for JT. The 1.07 and 1.09 plus Tyler Lockett last year. I think it will work out fine, granted that was the range Jefferson went but you can’t predict that kind of break out. I think JT is a top 5 dynasty RB asset, not sure if he will be a top 5 rb Irl but again, can’t predict that stuff


BigBortlesBrand

Last year pre season I needed a stud RB. With no 1st round pick I went to the board to try and get one. Ended up trading Patrick Mahomes, my 2021 1st and 2nd for Josh Allen, 1.01, and 2.04. With 1.01 I got JT and with 2.14 I got Aiyuk. Ended up finishing 3rd of 5 in my conference and making it to playoffs. Win the first game, go to the semis and it's against the guy I traded Mahomes too, and I end up beating him. I go on to win the championship off of Josh Allen having a beast of a game. 1.10 turned out to be Michael Carter and 2.10 turned out to be Dwayne Eskridge so in the end..... Gave: Mahomes, Michael Carter, Dwayne Eskridge Recieved: Josh Allen, JT, Aiyuk


DownToDTF

How did you win the league, making your '21 picks last (1.10, 2.10...), yet reference pick 2.14? How many teams are in this league? 10 or 14?


BigBortlesBrand

Shit I accidently put a 1 instead of a 4 that's my bad hahaha, it's a 10 team league


Kniles

After my intro auction in 2017 I was light on RB. I gave up my 2.07, 3.06, and 4.07 to move up 2 spots to get one of the top 4 RBs. I landed Dalvin Cook, my second favorite of the bunch. I traded up again, giving up some major IDPs I hoarded in the auction, for 1.08 to get Kareem Hunt, and I followed up with Marlon Mack in the early 3rd. Obviously that's only sort of held up long term, but it was a hell of a start.


jcud23

I traded a 2022 first for a 2020 3rd and a 2022 2nd. I used the 3rd on Pittman, no regrets with the pick.


TV40

In a 1 QB league non SF, I traded: 1.03, 1.04, 2.06, and Deebo for 1.02, 1.06, and Ruggs. I wanted Jamarr Chase that bad (I have Higgins and Burrow) and figured I can settle with an RB that will fall to me at 1.06. Ended up with Jamarr Chase and Kyle Pitts, so I'm much happier than I would've been had I taken Javonte like I was expecting. He surprisingly went at 1.05, to the guy who's best TE was Hurst. A shocker. I understand it may not have been a good trade and I got bailed out.


ColossalChulk

Not dynasty (which i think arguably puts my value of him higher) - I took Saquon at 1.02 of my redraft league. People thought I was crazy for taking a rookie so high... but y'all know how that story ended..


Biershitz

Who?


ColossalChulk

Edited, Saquon! haha - my bad, got carried away.. this whole thread seems to be raving on Saquon, with good reason too! 😂


Biershitz

Ah. Ok. In don’t see any comments about Barkley. But ok. Yea I also drafted him 1.03 his rookie season. Great pick


Copernikaus

Chase Claypool. 4th round. People laughed.


padskins

Last year I got Gibson in 3rd had to trade my 2nd the next year people mocked me.


Artistic_Yesterday48

Best I can come up with is the time last year when I had 1.10 and 2.2 in the rookie draft, took Zack Moss 1.10 then Jeudy and Ruggs went then I took Justin Jefferson at 2.2... really that was just dumb luck though as I almost took Bryan Edwards


MajesticDog6

I kind of screwed myself this year and definitely overpayed for some picks and players. I was competing last year but there was no way I was gonna win so I blew it up. I turned it into: Kyler Etn Swift Claypool Devonta smith Jeudy Pitts Pitt d So I’m happy with that but I don’t have my 2022 or 2023 frp which was definitely a mistake


uncleduncle

I don't remember all the specifics because there were many pieces in the trade but I knowingly overpaid for the top pick in the Fournette draft. The Fournette element worked out pretty poorly. BUT, the main piece I gave up was Odell who has basically only had one good season since then so it didn't turn out too terribly


MasHamburguesa

Last year at 1.05 I was deciding between Dobbins and Swift, and went with Dobbins. Then 1.06 went Akers, 1.07 went Jeudy and I got aggressive. The guy at 1.08 and I agreed on Aaron Jones + my 2022 2nd (resulted in Rondale Moore for someone else) for Swift + his future 1st. His season went real bad with some injuries and it turned in to 1.04 where I got Trey Lance (Superflex league). Very happy with that deal.


musicamusement

Just sold two firsts, one for 2022 and one for 2023, for Jeudy straight up. I will die saying Jeudy is gonna be a GOAT.


RodgersHasNoFamily

Oh no


baineschile

I traded Kerryon (after his 1st year) for 1.06 and drafted Darwin Thompson. I really wanted the KC RB.


Justifier3200

Traded devante parker for Aiyuk and Hurst. Needed a TE but loved aiyuk and was sad I don't get him. Aiyuk scored more points than parker last year I think and Hurst on top. Which now has less value but still


Consistent-Page7468

I'm in a keeper league. We get to keep 3 players at the end of the year. I reached and took Christian McCaffrey with my first pick #6 overall. He had a late second round grade on him. I also took DK Metcalf with a first round pick his rookie year as well. I've won my league back to back years now.


RodgersHasNoFamily

Traded Herbert and 2.08 for 1.01 and grabbed TLaw. Don’t even care if it was a bad move, just want to hop on for the ride.