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MWM031089

How would Etienne playing not at least somewhat negatively impact Robinson?


StraightBumSauce

ETN could take on an Agnew+ role that doesn't take too many touches from JRob and he continues to play 60-70% of snaps. And/or ETN could improve the offense, resulting in more red zone opportunities for JRob since he is the superior goal line back.


WorryAccomplished139

This is my take exactly. I'm a JRob owner so it might be a little bit of wishful thinking, but every indication out of Jacksonville is that they want to use Etienne in a Percy Harvin type role. I think Robinson's production will actually go up next year.


typhoon_marie

I’m a JRob owner too, and this take makes little sense to me. ETN is GOING to get rush attempts. There’s no way on earth they drafted a RB in the first round only to pass him the ball on screens. They’ll both get work running.


WorryAccomplished139

Sure, but no backfield is 100% dominated by one player. Carlos Hyde is averaging 6 carries a game when both he and Robinson are healthy this year, while Robinson is averaging 13. Let's say ETN completely takes over both Hyde's and Agnew's role, and some of Shenault's gadgety plays too. That would make him a very relevant fantasy and real-life difference maker. Even if he gets 10 traditional carries per game instead of Hyde's 6, all it would take for Robinson to make up those 4 carries is for the Jags to get 3-4 extra first downs per game. That seems very doable, and that's not even accounting for extra td chances. In general, I think better offenses make for better fantasy running backs. With Etienne coming back and Lawrence developing further, I think the upgraded offense as a whole will outweigh any carries that Etienne may steal.


Sure-Pilot8077

That’s not how football works, you have a finite amount of time to play in football, you have a finite amount of plays. Jaguars have been ass and they still only have 8 less plays per game than the Ravens who lead the league. Even if you expect the Jaguars to get better, that’ll only be an extra 3-4 plays, not 3-4 “extra first downs”. Also keep in mind jrob has been largely dependent on TD’s, and a big part of that is they currently have no one to score. If the offense doesn’t get better, dependency on Jrob in the redzone willl absolutely go down


onlevel7

JRob has been largely dependent on TDs?? I disagree He's got fewer TDs than all but 4 of the rest of the top 20 backs in PPR. If you take away all of their TDs he's sitting at around 8 overall in PPG.


Sure-Pilot8077

In jrobs 4 game streak where he put up 70% of his total season points, he averaged more than a TD per game. Every game he puts up over 10 points has been with a TD to help, that’s pretty TD dependent.


mockmaster

He’s 14th in all purpose yards among backs, and if you exclude the game where he got hurt in the first quarter, he’s 8th (ahead of Swift, Elliott, etc.), while also being 4th in yards per carry. He’s making the most of every carry and racking up yardage on top of scoring. Just because he’s scored TDs doesn’t mean he’s TD dependent. It just means on top of the yards he’s scoring TDs.


WorryAccomplished139

This is a pretty convoluted way of running the numbers though- he also averaged 115 scrimmage yards per game in that stretch. Just because a guy is scoring touchdowns doesn't mean he's touchdown dependent. I think u/onlevel7 had a better way of showing how different backs stack up if you take touchdowns out of the equation. Going down the half-ppr scoring leader boards, here are some of the other players averaging under 10 points a game when they don't score a touchdown: Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, James Conner, D'Andre Swift, Darrell Henderson, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. Are they all touchdown-dependent too?


SmartAssGary

Sure they'll get about the same number of plays, but more of them will be running - that's the point. Carries are more prevalent when you are a good offense and score more points


Sure-Pilot8077

Jaguars are top 10 in rushing yards %, if anything passing yards is what will increase, not rushing yards. They are top 11 in total rushing yards and bottom 6 in passing yards


SmartAssGary

Sure, but they are bottom 7 in rushing attempts/game, Top 11 in passing attempts/game. That spread will change as they get better. Rushing yards % just means they have a great RB and not an excellent passing game. Rushing is much more efficient for the Jags


Sure-Pilot8077

But look at the gsmes when jrob is great. In games when jrob had a great rushing game (weeks 3-6), the Jaguars average 27 rushes a game. When he doesn’t have a great rushing game, they average 20 attempts a game. Not including the game he got injured, jrob has a 58% share of rushes, and has been above 60% only twice during the season. And this is WITHOUT their rookie 1st round RB this past year, so does that go down with ETN coming in is a huge worry.


WorryAccomplished139

That makes sense- I definitely overestimated the uptick in plays per game. I still stand by the rest of it though- Etienne won't eat into Robinson's carries all that much, they'll have more chances to score, and Robinson will still be far and away the best red zone threat. It's not just that no one else on the team can score, it's that Robinson himself is extremely good in short-yardage situations.


mockmaster

>only 8 less plays per game …which puts them 22nd in the league. It’s not like they’re a close team also in the top five. The Jaguars plays per game puts them in the bottom 1/3 of the league. I agree with your point that 3-4 first downs aren’t what will realistically be added, but I think you’re also failing to realize that if they can move the ball better, it should mean more scoring opportunities in the red zone for JRob as the power style back in that backfield and it shouldn’t mean *less* dependency even if they aren’t as efficient. He’s had just 50% of the redzone carries this year for Jacksonville. Assuming JRob resumes his role as the power back to Etienne’s shiftiness, even if Etienne has some vulture carries and takes Hyde’s, Shenault’s, and Agnew’s red zone carries (which account for roughly 25% of Jacksonville’s red zone carries), that still doesn’t eat into JRob’s work (and in all honesty, that 65/35 split seems about right for what to expect in the red zone for JRob and Etienne given their play styles). That still leaves quite a bit of work for JRob assuming the offense DOESN’T progress. Also, JRob is averaging nearly 90 yards per game - and that includes the game where went down in the first quarter. Take that game out and he’s averaging just shy of 95 yards per game. That’s better than what Swift and Zeke are averaging on the year and right on par with Ekeler. He has hardly been “TD dependent”.


Sure-Pilot8077

And increase of 2 plays per game already brings them on the brink of top 10 tho, 2 plays is irrelevant, that’s the point I was making. Yes, they should have more redzone opportunities, but it’s not just Etn coming back, that WR core will 100% get better, it literally can’t get worse. Dudes only have 4 redzone passing TD’s over the season, other players will start getting more involved, so although they will have more redzone opportunities, it’ll also be split up between more people so kinda balances out. My concerns with jrob are 1) etn coming back could easily cut into his passing work and 2) jrob hasn’t been getting a large piece of the rushing work, if he’s getting 60% of the rushing in games he’s healthy this year (on average), then with Etn added, does that drop? And even if it stays the same, that means Jaguars would have to be a league leader in rushing just for jrob to get 16 rushes a game. His usage could absolutely change, but for now it’s a bit of a worry


StraightBumSauce

A Percy Harvin role would still get rushing attempts, it's just that a lot of them are less traditional ones. ETN will probably get about 5-8 rushes per game and then get a lot of passing work. This still leaves 12-20 rushes for JRob and some passing work of his own. The idea that ETN was drafted for this role is nothing new and makes a ton of sense based on what we know about Urban Meyer offenses. At Florida it was Harvin, at Ohio St it was Curtis Samuel and in Jacksonville it's Agnew right now. Agnew is playing the role that they drafted ETN for. That's why they wanted Kadarius Toney, bc they wanted someone they could manufacture touches for and get into space. When Toney was gone, they pivoted (and/or panicked, depending on your POV) and took ETN bc Urban was determined to get his Swiss Army Knife. It all tracks. I've been saying this is what they wanted ETN for since he was drafted and the way that they've used Agnew only makes me more certain that I'm right. Both JRob and ETN will get touches but there will be little to no overlap in what their roles will be so they will both eat in this offense. They won't be cannibalizing each other touches. This is all assuming Urban sticks around, which obviously is no certainty.


WeenisWrinkle

I think there's a lot more chance that they have more overlapping roles than just Etienne = gadget and JR = traditional. Etienne is too good of a traditional runner in his own rite. It seems more likely to me that Etienne takes over that gadget stuff, but also takes over some of the traditional carries. He's an explosive runner from traditional hand offs as well.


scottfultonlive

The only thing is whether there are coaching changes


Velaccio1992

I have no idea how you how arrived at this conclusion


International_System

They’re not using a first round pick in a rebuilding team for a Swiss Army knife. James Robinson will probably still be relevant but he’s obviously going to get less action than he is currently getting. Just like how this year he has taken a step back fantasy wise because he is no longer the only working option in the Jags offense, he will probably continue to be even less productive next year. By no means do I think that means he won’t be a relevant fantasy asset (at least I hope not since I own him) though.


StraightBumSauce

>They’re not using a first round pick in a rebuilding team for a Swiss Army knife. Then why was it widely reported/believed that they planned to take Kadarius Toney for that role before pivoting to ETN? That role is a big part of the Urban Meyer offenses. See Percy Harvin and Curtis Samuel.


WeenisWrinkle

Toney would be a better fit in that role, but doesn't run well between the tackles. Etienne isn't as good of a fit for the gadget role - he's not nearly as elusive and doesn't have the same agility in space, but is much better from the traditional hand offs running behind the line. It would be coach malpractice to *only* use Etienne in a gadget role and not give him plenty of traditional carries.


bukkakepancakes

Maybe they decided they didn’t want to use their first rounder on that type and shifted to ETN…


StraightBumSauce

Nobody knows for sure except Jax but if you follow the evidence that I already provided, along with the fact that ETN was lining up mostly at WR in training camp prior to his injury, it would lead you to another conclusion. It's a strange situation but there's no evidence that could lead you to believe that they drafted a 1st round RB purely to supplant JRob. The only thing we have to support that is that it makes no sense to draft ETN with this role in mind but NFL coaches and GMs don't always make rational decisions, like drafting a 1st round RB when you have an UDFA RB that you're paying peanuts and just went for 1400 AP yards and 10 TDs with decent efficiency on the worst team in the league. I laid out my evidence and line of thinking as to why I believe ETN will be playing a slash role if and when he gets healthy next year, can you provide yours?


waddup55

Your point is wrong. Why would a rebuilding team take a RB in the first round to replace a top 5, 22yo RB the year before?


WorryAccomplished139

Has he actually taken a step back this year though? If we don't count the game where he got hurt in the first quarter, he's basically averaging the same ppg as he did last year.


-Anguscr4p-

Implying a regime who picks a RB at 1.25 when they already have a bellcow RB on a UDFA contract has any idea what they're doing. I don't disagree that Etienne is obviously going to get carries but JAX traded a promising CB for a TE who can't block and are using a converted DB as their slot WR. If there's a team who would use a first rounder on a Swiss Army Knife it's JAX.


RohnJobert

Jags won that Dan Arnold trade pretty easily


-Anguscr4p-

Tell me you only play fantasy without telling me you only play fantasy A CB who was drafted at 1.09 a year prior will always be more valuable than any non-star TE, that's just the nature of positional value


RohnJobert

dude has been a healthy scratch more than once since being traded lmao I mean you can sit there and say there's potential for him sure but Dan Arnold is already Trevor's leading receiver on a team desperate for his growth. Just because a CB is drafted in the first doesn't make them good.


International_System

I mean they’re rebuilding you have to take best talent available. JROB had a great but incredibly inflated rookie season. I see no chance that JROB somehow gets more or even keeps getting the same amount of playing time it just doesn’t make sense


-Anguscr4p-

What's the excuse for him performing well this season if he was "incredibly inflated" last year?


International_System

The fact that they didn’t have an actual QB and ran it way more than this year? I mean just look at the difference in years


-Anguscr4p-

**James Robinson 2020** 14 games started, 240 rush attempts, 60 targets Average: ~21 touches per game **James Robinson 2021** 7 games started (including 3 anomalies where Carlos Hyde ate into his workload due to injury or Urban Meyer's incompetence), 100 rush attempts, 29 targets Average: ~18 touches per game In his 5 fully healthy games as lead back (weeks 2-6), he averaged ~19 touches per game. If you think a decrease of ~2 touches per game is evidence of "incredible inflation" idk what to tell you. If having a QB has affected anything about his performance I would point to his increased efficiency on his touches this season. JRob can play.


gtthom86

You premise that they are going about this logically is off-base. Sure, you shouldn't take a Swiss army knife at 1.25, but we have plenty of evidence Meyer and the jags have no idea what they are doing


[deleted]

[удалено]


StraightBumSauce

JRob has a higher BMI and put up more reps on the bench. ETN weighed in at 215 at his pro day but many commented that it looked like water weight which makes sense since he played at 199 his senior year and it's doubtful he put on that much "good" weight in such a short time. 200-205 is probably his natural/ideal weight while JRob is a natural 220. JRob was also 2nd in the league in RB Red Zone Fantasy Points Vs. Expectation last year. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/rb-red-zone-fantasy-points-vs-expectation-2021/amp/


Sure-Pilot8077

You’re assuming way too much will go perfectly for jrob, any team could only have a certain amount of plays. Every play Etn has the balls in his hand is a play jrob won’t have it in his hands. Etn will 100% cut into jrobs workload, there isn’t a doubt about it. Also keep in mind jrobs value this year has largely been based on TD’s, dude has 7 TD so far this season. With Etn coming back, a WR group that can only get better, and tlaw expected progression, dependence on jrob in the redzone can only go down. How much? We don’t know, but the downside is the Mike Davis vs Patterson situation, where etn is Patterson


MonCalFF

Yeah there's no world in which his return improves things for JRob. We expected ETN to be used in a gadget role so the pass catching work will likely go to him but I would assume he'll still get a handfull of carries.


Marcus2you

Honestly who knows. I don’t even know who the coach will be next season.


bslow22

I think you mean Travis. We're on a first name basis.


Sure-Pilot8077

Etn coming back absolutely hurts him. The question is how much. Personally, with how volatile the RB position already is, I’d rather not deal with this added risk


TheNFLSubBlowsss

Maybe. Jaguars need a WR bad. Shenault and Agnew have completely sucked, and who knows Chark's future. He was dropping passes left and right prior to his injury too. I think the more I've watched of the Jaguars offense, it's blatantly obvious why ETN was planned to be used heavily in a passing role. The Jaguars WR core is more than bad enough to where Robinson can still be a traditional runner, ETN a hybrid, and both eat.


Sure-Pilot8077

Problem is jrob has only ate when every RB has are. Jrobs averaging under 55% (or 60%) of the teams rushes, not including the game he left early for injury and the game he missed. This means when jrob played the whole game,he gets slightly over half the rushes and that’s WITHOUT their rookie 1st round RB. This is worrying because at this rate, Jaguars would have to be one of the league leaders in rushing attempts for jrob to get over 15 rushes a game


TheNFLSubBlowsss

Yeah, why he's sharing carries with Hyde at the rate he is is really annoying, considering Hyde blows. Anyone who is actually watching Jaguars games though should be seeing the same thing. Trevor is hitting WRs all over the place and they're just blatantly dropping them. There is almost no passing game to speak of because Shenault has developed literal bricks for hands and Agnew was never a great receiver to begin with. Marvin Jones Jr is solid, but he's not a WR1, who is taking WR1 CB coverage because of Chark's injury and Shenault sucking. The Jaguars have literally no passing game until they acquire a WR, or their current WRs learn how to play the position they've been playing since high school, which is also making defenses focus up against the running game. This really isn't the best season to judge Robinson purely off numbers because he's in a situation that realistically only Derrick Henry could work in.


Sure-Pilot8077

1000000%, but by that same reason jrob still has the same exact risk he had before the season. Scheme change, new HC who has hitched his horse to a new RB, etc. Jrob is absolutely great, but HC’s are cocky fucks, that’s a huge reason why draft capital matters. If you get Meyers drunk and ask him who he’d rather be an all pro RB, etn or jrob, he’d say etn because then he gets the credit for drafting him, and that goes a long way. That’s why etn coming back is imo going to hurt jrob. How much tho, we don’t know


Propylbenzene

As an etienne owner and Robinson denier, yes. He’s made too much of an impact to be sidelined. I can see it being a high powered committee with etienne getting a lot of passing work and Robinson getting goal line work like MG3 and Javonte williams this year. Note robinson iirc would be entering the last year of a deal in 2022 so we’ll get some clarity this offseason. If the jags want to keep him they should be looking to extend him this year.


broadly

Anybody telling you with a high degree of certainty what is going to happen is selling you snake oil. Of course they don't know, they just have axes to grind about their particular guy. Here's what we actually know: Travis Etienne is one of the most productive and explosive college running backs all time. He showed literally everything you could want out of a running back prospect. Depending on how you grade prospects, he could've well ended up on a level with Swift, Dobbins, Akers from 2020's class. That's how he graded for me and he got an early 2nd round grade from the NFL's advisory panel as a Junior so that's how he graded for the NFL in that class too. Then he was drafted 1st round. If he comes back at all close to what he was, he's going to get a lot of work. No coach would see what he can do and be able to keep him away from his touches. James Robinson has been a mauler for going on 2 years now. He's proven that he's elite at forcing missed tackles and getting yards after first contact at the pro level. He's capable on all three downs and can handle a full workload if you need him to. He's not near as explosive as Etienne and isn't as slick in the passing game but I think there can be no doubt at this point he's likely the superior between the tackles runner. No coach would see what he can do and be able to keep him away from his touches. Both guys are great, not good, at what they do and both will command touches. In PPR or HPPR I prefer guys with Etienne's profile who have the explosiveness and elite pass catching upside. Robinson needs volume to put up big weeks where a guy like Etienne can get there on a line like 9-12 rushes, 5-7 catches every week.


Th3St1g

James Robinson is a stud and I will argue with any of you about this. He had a good college career but nobody expected this considering he wasn’t drafted. He’s only 23 years old. He’s done nothing but produce with these awful Jaguar teams. Urban is probably gone after this year. ETN was a stud in college and this sub has a hard on for him. But why on gods green earth would you take the ball out of the hands of one of the best RB in the league? ETN will get carries but I don’t see him taking over or even a MG3/JW situation. I’ll be downvoted but this is my opinion.


Entire-Weight-2399

Well take my upvote cause I think you're 100% correct.


ChrRome

>But why on gods green earth would you take the ball out of the hands of one of the best RB in the league? Have you heard of a player named Nick Chubb?


typhoon_marie

Problem is Kareem Hunt is *also* one of the best RBs in the league


ChrRome

Chubb got a similar share and snap count with Hunt injured. Chubb is also much better than Robinson, and if Etienne is close to what is expected based on him as a prospect, the gap in talent will be much smaller.


Kainanz95

Is Chubb much better then Robinson? He runs behind one of the best run blocking olines in the league with one of the most run heavy offenses there is? I’d love to see the roles reversed and see the stats


ChrRome

Chubb was pretty widely considered the second best pure runner in the league before this season started, so I assume Robinson isn't as good.


Kainanz95

And how much of that was due to his situation? We won’t really know but all I’m saying is that Chubb is great but robinson could also be great. One years a fluke but he’s about to have another and do it on one of the worst teams with a rookie QB who has somewhat struggled with a bottom tier oline. Bringing up statistics based on the past isn’t a good argument for what is happening now. I think after week 2 Robinson was one of the highest ranked running backs if not the first before Injury based on PPF grades anyway. Robinson worst YPC this year is 4.27 that’s pretty spectacular given his circumstances.


sendphotopls

You're making total sense and no one is gonna hear your argument out because Chubb is so highly praised with mainstream appeal and draft capital, while JRob is an UDFA who plays on a bottom 3 team in the league with no market whatsoever. But you're right - we don't know how they would performn if the roles were reversed, but it's not really that asinine to imagine JRob performing at Chubb levels with the Browns o-line in front of him. Hell, we already seen an UDFA come in and run like Chubb behind that line this year! And that's without a season and a half of Top 10 RB1 production.


StraightBumSauce

And nobody has even mentioned the fact that JRob appears to be a superior pass catcher to Chubb


typhoon_marie

Good thing Kevin Stefanski won’t be coaching the Jags then isn’t it


Th3St1g

To quote Lt. Aldo Raine “if and that’s one big IF”


Jackson_Dupagne

You would have to believe that Travis Etienne is as good as Kareem Hunt. Who was an absolute stud with Kansas City and currently still is with Cleveland. And they both produce RB1 points when playing.


ChrRome

You just have to not believe that Robinson is as good as Chubb.


Jackson_Dupagne

This far, Robinson has been every good as Chubb.


Th3St1g

Agreed. And ETN hasn’t played a down in this league yet people in this sub are calling him the next AP or Derrick Henry. Could you imagine the locker room if they pull a guy who plays well for a guy who hasn’t played at all?


bukkakepancakes

Who is calling him that


Bill_Cosbys_Balls

Because of the investment Jacksonville made in him? And Urban is still gonna be there… he survived #grindgate and more importantly, has guaranteed $ left on his contract. Khan wont pay 2 head coaches


crayola1323

Urban Meyers out after one year?


handikapat

Do you think he's doing a great job? He's already brought controversy with that video of him hitting on that woman while his wife was at home with the kids


crayola1323

I think he's due for at least another try after all the work Jacksonville did to acquire him. The dance thing was blown out of proportion by the media and theres hundreds of worse examples of players/coaches still in the league.


handikapat

It only took a month after this for him to get the can


crayola1323

Honestly, I'm shocked, but it seems he was in fact THAT bad.


handikapat

It's just such a different dynamic in the NFL. Like lambo said he's coaching adult millionaires now not kids he can yell at.


Th3St1g

“Dance thing” is a funny way to say sticking his finger in some chicks ass while the team flew home without him


crayola1323

Tried finding video of ass fingers McGee but I haven't had any luck. If you have it plz post it!


Th3St1g

I think the real question is to ask “is this team headed in the right direction?” And from what I’ve seen I don’t believe they are.


TheNFLSubBlowsss

Why not? This is the thing. This team is untalented. People keep trying to say we should be doing better than we are, but why? Who on this roster would start elsewhere on more than like 10 teams? None of the WRs. None of the OL, none of the TEs, none of the interior DL, none of the CBs. It's basically Josh Allen, James Robinson, and maybe Myles Jack. The roster is a huge work in progress. They took the Bengals down to the wire, they had the Cardinals sweating, they beat the Bills. Like they have some bad losses, but this roster getting any wins is wild. They were down 0-17 and came back against the Colts Sunday. I'm just curious what you're seeing.


handikapat

That's prob a better way to put it.


TheNFLSubBlowsss

I don't think he's doing a great job, but I think he's doing a satisfactory job. The team legitimately looks better than last year with quite possibly the worst roster in the NFL. They've hung around with some good teams.


jmarFTL

Why indeed. I'm not arguing that it was the right move to draft Etienne. It wasn't. But they did. It happened. It's not like last offseason when people were speculating "oh maybe the Jags draft someone." They did. And they spent a first round pick on him. I think Robinson is great. So I think that was a very dumb decision for a team that has holes nearly everywhere else. But I don't see how you can say "why on gods green earth would you take the ball out of the hands of one of the best RB in the league?" The same could be said of the decision to draft Etienne to begin with, yet it happened. Taking the ball out of Robinson's hands would be a dumb decision. Considering we're dealing with *checks notes* the Jacksonville Jaguars, I don't see why people are thinking a dumb decision is impossible.


RealChipKelly

I really really doubt Urban is gone after the year. It’s year 1 into a total rebuild and Khan gave Meyer a ton of money to take this job. Unless there’s another horrible scandal, no way he’s gone after 1 season


Aubear11885

They’ll trade one. They have to. JRob will be up for contract soon and they’ll have to make a choice.


meizinsane

I mean, they literally drafted the guy to take touches away from Jrob. It doesn't really matter how good JRob is if they used a first round pick on a good RB prospect. You could have made this exact same argument last year and it would have backfired if ETN stayed healthy. This backfield probably won't be fun to own next year. Banking on Urban getting fired isn't exactly ideal, even if he does ETN is a first round pick. He'll get opportunity. I would agree that Jrob is prob better and ETN was a waste of a pick but he'll probably get a healthy amount of opportunities regardless.


Big_Wy

Why is everyone here so confident in ETN coming back at full strength? Lisfranc is a bitch and a half. He may never be the same again. Pessimism is always underrrated as an investment philosophy. I love J Rob long term, guy passes my eye test every time I watch him.


SameGenericUsername

For real, lisfranc injuries are no joke


Tw1987

People keep saying this and it’s the reason why I didn’t draft Deebo in my start up. So whoever came up with this fuck them and I don’t believe it anymore.


SameGenericUsername

I'm just saying that it is a procedure that is easily complicated! There is a lot of evidence that athletes return to play, but I wouldnt be shocked if next year was a down year for ETN


ChrRome

>Pessimism is always underrrated as an investment philosophy. Yet you aren't pessimistic about Robinson's role next season? You might want to take your own advice here.


Big_Wy

Not really no. I believe he's shown enough through two years of production. I know J Rob is good in this league. ETN is just a projection. Sure this may look dumb in a year but it feels like a way safer bet.


ChrRome

If you actually followed your advice shouldn't you have neither of them? They are both pretty risky bets.


Big_Wy

Normally yes but it's all relative to the betting market. On average I would say people are optimistic about players. So you take advantage of the bias and bet on regression to sneak out some value. But going on KTC values and what I'm seeing here J Rob is already seen in a negative light. So I'll do the opposite at a price cut. I guess that is kind of inconsistent huh lol.


28natmart

Makes sense to me. I'm curious what a fair price point for JRob would be for you?


Big_Wy

Again, this may look bad in a year but I would take him over Gibson, A Jones, Dobbins, or D Mont to put things into perspective. He's 23.2 and looks fantastic. Low injury history as well. Draft capitol and ETN are the reasons he's below those other guys and if you think ETN will struggle to come back, he passes them all.


noahruns

What I’ll say is that if Urban gets canned, the next coach won’t care about draft capital. The better guy will play. And it’s not like it’s never happened before. Carson never skipped a beat when Penny got picked


ChrRome

I wasn't talking about draft capital. Generally players get drafted highly because they are great prospects, which is what Etienne is. If he is a great player, he isn't going to be riding the bench. There is also a reasonable chance Etienne will just be better than Robinson, which by your own reasoning means he will ride the bench and be valueless.


hostage27

I agree with this. I’d be worried about ETN. Could be a good buying window for j rob after the season, or a hold if you have him. That kid franc has me nervous for him.


booojangles13

His draft capital won’t mean much when Urban has a health crisis that miraculously gets better when he’s in SoCal and the Jags have a new coach.


Jackson_Dupagne

I don’t see how he’s not in a 1a 1b scenario like Chubb and Hunt. Etienne still has to prove himself to even get to the 1b part, all things considered. Robinson is still an RB1 moving forward.


XanmanK

Put it this way- Carlos Hyde has played 205 snaps compared to Robinson’s 332, and look what JRob has been able to accomplish. If Etienne takes all of Hyde’s snaps and maybe an additional 20% of JRob’s then the offense is just that much better and I think the production stays consistent. This is all assuming Etienne is 100%- Lis Franc injury did a number to Darren McFadden


[deleted]

If you are not contending and still have James Robinson you are messing up.


HotBoyFF

I agree with you but goddamn do I LOL at the absolutist comments made in sports subs, it makes me completely writeoff the opinion. “Josh Allen is a bust and everybody knows it” “Justin Herbert isn’t good” “Derrick Henry will never be good that’s why he’s stuck behind Demarco Murray”. Every single offseason someone posts threads from prior seasons and we all laugh at how wrong everyone was then people like you come into these threads and make your opinions sound like a statement of fact. Again, I agree with you here but the way you worded it is hilarious.


[deleted]

I agree with you 100%. Nobody should actually take a random dude on the internets advice. Once you understand the basics of fantasy football there is a huge amount of luck that goes into it. Value a player on your own, and make trades on your own. If someone is asking how much X player is worth I will give my opinion, but that’s all it is, an opinion


lald99

I would generally agree with this sentiment, but do we really need an “in my opinion” qualifier for every post or comment, particularly in a fantasy football subreddit where the vast majority of statements are obviously mere opinion?


SquashMarks

He’s only 23 and his team is terrible. It’s got to get better for him next year - more offense, more goal line opps. Even if ETN comes back fully healthy (which is not guaranteed) there are teams out there who have two useful backs for fantasy and they can complement each other


[deleted]

What exactly makes you assume they will have more offense and he will have more goal line opportunities? I mean this is just my personal opinion and nobody should live or die by it but I would be looking to move him


SquashMarks

Jags in 2021 are 23rd in yds/game, 31st in points/game, -83 plus minus, 1/3rd of total points come in 4th quarter (garbage time or playing from behind which means passing). Trevor will find his game after Urban leaves, I have no doubt. This team will improve and opportunities to score should improve. That’s why I’d be trying to buy Robinson.


[deleted]

This is literally just an opinion as well. We are allowed to have opinions here. No need to downvote me. I personally think James Robinson is a sell. You make a compelling argument but Implying that they will improve because Urban Meyer will not be there next year is just Naive


Don_Miguel_33

I’m new to dynasty, what would you be trying to flip JRob for?


[deleted]

I don’t want to sound like an asshole but you need to include how many teams are in your league, what your roster size is, and what your starting positions are. Even with that previous information, you need to include how your roster looks, your record, and how many teams make the playoffs. Do not take into account anyone’s ‘advice’ on this sub for valuing a player without that previous information, because their worth will vary widely based upon it.


Don_Miguel_33

I don’t want to sound like an asshole, but is sounds like you kind of wanted to be an asshole/snooty know-it-all while pretending to not want to be one. A simple “well in my league…(insert opinion here)” answer would suffice. You said you’re a seller, so give me an answer/example or don’t lol.


[deleted]

He worth a early first if you start 4-5 RB’s in a 16 team league. He’s worth a third in a 8 team league that starts 1-2 RB’s. A “well in my league“ opinion means nothing because you could play in a vastly different league then me.


Don_Miguel_33

It’s kind of like being a lawyer though. You look for precedent in similar cases and try to apply it the best you can to your case. JRob is an obvious asset for a contender and carries enough risk to the point where he could be seen as a 1-year “rental” in a sense. I’m a potential buyer, so just trying to get some opinions on how others value him as I’ve never actually traded picks before, only have played redraft. That’s all. Thanks!


Nduguu77

Why? He's an RB1 this year. He's a solid piece to rent for a chip run


[deleted]

That’s exactly what I said. “ If you are NOT contending and still have James Robinson you are messing up” If you are in contention you keep him, because the only person you would selling him to is another contender. This is assuming your just trading for draft picks. If you are contending and can sell him plus a second for someone like Pittman to another contender I would take that trade


MidnightWizard11

Why though? He's a good producer and should be on your team to help you win a championship


[deleted]

Yes but what if you are not contending, as I stated twice already? The odds that he is a difference maker in your teams championship season next year are extremely slim. I admittedly do not know much about his injury, but The Jaguars did not draft a RB in the first round to sit him on the bench.


MidnightWizard11

Sorry homie I just saw the other guys response and just wanted to troll


HuggiesNotDruggies

Don't worry about the other two guys, I understood that this one was a joke, and it was funny!


MidnightWizard11

Lmao thank you!


oxburger15

Can you read?


handikapat

Because my other running backs are Tony Pollard and Mike Davis.... I need at least something viable next year.


[deleted]

I would suggest making some serious roster moves or just tear it down completely.


handikapat

First year playing I'm trying :( I have Jjeff CD mclaurin with some other potential good wrs just no RBS. I am tanking and will currently get the 2nd pick. It's a first year league with like 80% newbies to dynasty so there haven't been many trades and I don't think we'll see many with picks involved


[deleted]

Understandable. Keep your receivers and hopefully you’ll get lucky in the draft on a RB.


handikapat

Unwise to move 1 of the wrs for some picks and maybe a hurt RB from a contender?


[deleted]

I would 100% keep Jefferson and Lamb unless you can get an early first next year plus the equivalent of 3 other firsts. Those guys are absolutely huge dynasty assets. 22 year old WR’s that will produce at a top 15 level at a minimum (opinion) for the next (it seems) 5-7 years, plus another 1-3 years at a WR 2-4 level is extremely rare. Depending on whom your other receivers are and how many starting receivers your league plays with it may make sense to try and move Mclauren.


handikapat

Terrace marshall, tboyd, and arob are my other wrs. 12T 1qb 3wrs 2rbs te flx. I have dawson Knox and Irv Smith in my IR. Hoping one of those wrs or TEs pan out so I can keep them and trade the sexy looking ones.


[deleted]

I would hold onto all your WR’s. You would be getting bottom dollar value by trading them. How big are your roster sizes ? Your team is not good even in a 12 team league but you have 2 of the top 5 dynasty assets in 1 QB


handikapat

Well it's not good right now! Roster size is 20 spots and 1 IR


SSJ1Will

James Robinson is pretty much God


Ikorus7

I’d hold


Stiffanys_epiphanies

Both


AMP121212

Jrob>ETN


combustman

Yeah I think he still has value, but Im not sure where everyone gets Etienne as just a pass catcher and Robinson as the goal line back....they are basically the same size...and Etienne put up STUPID rushing numbers/TDs in college in addition to his receiving work. The only we can say for sure is that Etienne has the draft capital (which is stupid but lets face the nfl seems to care about it) and Robinson has the NFL experience and body of work to show he can be the guy.... what actually happens tho....no idea, seems like a total crapshoot


StraightBumSauce

>Im not sure where everyone gets Etienne as just a pass catcher and Robinson as the goal line back....they are basically the same size JRob's playing weight is 220 and ETN's is 200


ThatManAaron7

Guy in my league wants a 1st or Jeudy or Amari. I told him I wouldn’t pay for a rental. I really don’t feel a Hunt Chubb situation here. It’s entirely possible though that JRob is the Lead back next year but I’m not tossing a vital asset away for that risk


-Anguscr4p-

JRob isn't gonna be a RB1 next season but he'll hit UFA in 2023 at 25 years old as a proven bellcow RB, not like he's just gonna shrivel into dust once Etienne touches the field


JaeBeazy

It hurts his value but I see an avenue for him to be an RB2 next year. I got him for a championship run, but if I have to trade him for a 2nd then that’s what I’ll do in the offseason


AbsorbingMan

Well Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister co-existed together in the NO offense just fine. I don’t see why James Robinson and Etienne can’t either.


RossGarner

There's really no answer to this question. We won't know until we see whether or not ETN is healthy next season. At the start of the year the Jags didn't want to use JRob, preferring to trot out Carlos Hyde and other scrubs after spending a 1st round pick trying to replace Robinson. When that clearly didn't work they rotated by and JRob settled back into his role from last season. Anyone who confidently says it will go one or the other next season is just guessing. ETN could come back and be a complementary weapon, he could be the unquestioned starter from day or he could never be healthy again. All three outcomes produce wildly different price points for JRob. There's no way we know until we get more information about ETN's injury, which hasn't come out at all yet.


Kainanz95

The only thing that worries me is that urban said he wanted Toney over everyone with their first pick and just went with best available talent at that point. Does it hinder Robinsons? Perhaps but one thing I do know is I’d rather a few less points per week and have that asset year round then him be a Derrick Henry and then he useless after a handful of weeks.


Apocalypso_MTG

In my oppinion it will become a RBBC with JRob as the leadback and ETN with the passing downs, so it will hurt his production but how much depends on who will get goalline/short yardage situation (i guess JRob). So he will turn from a borderline RB1 to an RB2 with upside and remain a borderline RB1 if ETN doesnt recover well. Overall thats fine for the price most owners paid for JRob plus if he wins me this years Championship i couldnt care less about his value in 2022 (same goes for Connor and Sanders who both have very good playoff Schedules).


Ryunburna

Definitely hurts him. Biggest thing is he has tht idiot as a coach who clearly doesn’t like him for some reason


Thomaz101

Just sold Etienne for Conner, a 2022 mid-first and a 2023 2nd


-Anguscr4p-

I'm projecting a split backfield in 2022, and then either Etienne takes over in 2023 and JRob walks in FA or Etienne sucks / is injured and JRob stays in JAX. If you wanna trade him do it before his value tanks this offseason, otherwise just hold him and see what happens. He's a 23 year old RB with two seasons of proven bellcow work under his belt, he will 100% have suitors if he's allowed to walk


JustiseRainsFrmAbove

I foresee more of a Kamara/Ingram split tbh, and since this is Jacksonville I think they will both be high-end RB2 (think Clyde when he’s playing decently). The Robinson owners who are assuming a Zeke/Pollard split are wrong imo.


honestly_dishonest

There's no scenario where splitting the backfield doesn't hurt jrob. That being said he'd proven he can ball. Last year wasn't a fluke. I still think he stays an rb2 at least.


iBears

I feel like anyone saying it doesn’t have a somewhat negative impact on JRob are looking for every reason and possibility that could make it not true. The fact is Etienne is a decently talented player at worst. Even if you don’t give into the hype there are plenty of backfields that have worse backups taking reps from even better starters. Saying JRob doesn’t lose any work is just hopefully thinking probably mostly from owners. You’d be stupid not to consider the possibility of a 1st round RB that played in college with their franchise QB taking reps away from JRob…


PedoUkrainianNazis

I don't see how a new rb coming into the fold doesn't not hurt jrob.


glassfloor11

Yes


itscomingright4us

i like that you call him Travis


EliteAaronHenry0

I traded away all my shares of Jrob and have no shares of ETN but there is no way Robinson loses that backfield imo. He is a stud, has always been a stud since he stepped on the field, and ETN had one of the worst injuries in sports. Will coming back take some work away? For sure, but Robinson is secure with solid fantasy relevance imo.


StayDerp

I only have one JROB share (regrettably) and faded ETN during every draft (luckily) this year My take on it is: The BEST CASE SCENARIO is a Chubb/Hunt scenario where both are viable starters and on any given week one might explode The WORST CASE scenario is the offense looks similar to this year - Tlaw barely improves and it’s an absolute mess - they share targets/snaps 50/50 à la Melvin Gordon and Javonte and the only time you feel good starting either is when they get a TD what I think is REALISTIC is some scenario between these two: Maybe the line improves a bit - maybe they get an outside receiver, push Shenault to the slot and then have 2 dynamic backs that can tear (bad) defenses up with good playcalling (this is another concern imo as long as Meyer is there, while I don’t think that it’s all on him it doesn’t look super promising either) Sooo TL;DR: I understand wanting to hold but personally, I would move on unless I am contending and need JROB for this year While there is a scenario where his value increases I think that it’s more likely that he falls off by 20/25% (for fantasy purposes) and then I’d rather substitute that production with someone cheap like Zack Moss etc.)


Grapleef

Former Robinson owner who sold him this year to make a trade for Fields. Hasn’t paid off yet but I’m hoping year 2 that Fields takes off and that Etienne takes over, loved Robinson but figured it’s better to sell high on an RB that could be stuck in a committee going forward


MPPockets4

He’s on a three year deal. After next year, he’s gone


thedkexperience

I think at this point that if JRob is in jeopardy of losing his spot one of the other 31 teams would move a 3rd round pick for him quite quickly.


Current_Poet_835

I think he will have a serious role in the offense next year. He’s been too good. May be like a Ingram and kamara (obviously downgraded) kind of backfield


odieman1231

It's worth noting we typically see a 40% dropoff in production post lisfranc. 40% of what is yet to be determined but I'm happy to hold JRob another year. ​ The issue with selling him now is people will just bring up ETN as a reason yo massively discount him.


yomjoseki

James Robinson could be someone who falls off the face of the earth next year or James Robinson could be a guy we talk about falling off the face of the earth every year for the next ten years There's no in between


WeenisWrinkle

No one can possibly tell you with any clarity. There's way too much uncertainty. **Pros for Robinson:** - Has produced behind a bad OL and has looked showed above average NFL starting talent for 2 straight years - Is on a cheap contract **Cons for Robinson:** - The coach didn't draft him, and might not even be there next season - UDFAs have a history of being cast aside through no fault of their own, and his contract ends after next year **Pros for Etienne:** - Dominant college profile, 1st round draft capital. Everything you could want in a great RB prospect. **Cons for Etienne:** - Bad injury that has an uncertain recovery rate - Will probably be in a committee with Robinson at best in 2022


062692

Robinson won't lose his job to Etienne. That pick will be an utter waste 4 years from now


Randy_Moss_

They asked this same question this off season and the answer is this…. Yes. Robinson is talented and clearly the running back going forward. ETN is gonna be a gadget player according to Urban. Which is fucking stupid but hey it’s Urban Meyer


warriorathlete21

Stash him. He hits the free agent market after next season.


bargman

It could benefit him by opening up the offense. It could hurt him by taking away too much volume. Latter is more likely, but we aren't even sure Etienne can play just yet.