By - Andyb5533
So many owners out here dying of thirst, and here you are trying to run from the rain....
Promise you're gonna be sitting pretty when rookie fever hits.
Other owners are gonna throw absurd deals at you to chase "their guy". Make sure you get the players YOU like, trade for some future picks or current players that YOU like, and honestly enjoy the moment of owning an entire draft.
We believe in you. Good Luck 👍
Thank you Sir. I will indeed enjoy it. Took me a long time to acquire my war chest
The worst thing is you can always kick your picks back if you're worried or consolidate. At some point once you feel it makes sense, convert the picks to vets. Buy undervalued vets. Picks are just assets with unlimited roster space
Treat em as liquid currency
This. Unless you’re in a trade-adverse league, picks just gain value as the draft closes in. Especially 1sts.
fyi, it's trade averse
Exactly. A few days before your rookie draft and especially when the picks start coming up on the board, is when they will be at their highest value. You should be able to get some good proven talent from people who are enamored by a rookie they fell in love with.
I think it depends on the draft, if I had 7 picks in the last draft and could walk away with pitts Najee chase Lawrence smith waddle and Bateman then I’d say that’s a pretty huge win
Well sure. But you could just as easily walk away with Lawrence/Etienne/Fields/Moore/Marshall/Sermon/Moore and be thinking "damn I should have traded a few of these picks for actual studs"
If you were drafting Moores, Marshall and Sermon in the first round that's on you.
Elijah Moore, Marshall and Sermon all had ADPs in the late 1st.
Maybe in 1QB but not even close in SF
for what it’s worth I would actively be trying to trade for Moore in dynasty. that guy f***s.
I couldn't agree more. He's a baller and his perceived value is down at the moment
Anyone who says it’s stupid to have assets is stupid. Controlling the market is never a bad thing.
Hey man. Seen you before on here. I’d agree but the podcast made me think and has a valid point. I have loads of 2nds too. So if I sell some I can control the market more surely?
I saw someone sell their 2022 1st for a 2021 2nd during the draft because Trey Sermon fell and they really wanted him.
I'm really not sure how typical that is, but the strategy of holding a 2nd and hoping someone's draft crush falls and they're willing to give up a 1st or another asset mid draft makes me drool
Had a guy in my league trade Waller mid draft so he could get Carter... Carter has been better than I expected but still, oof
oof that trade did not get better...
On draft day the reigning champ of my league traded Cooper Kupp for the last pick of the first round and drafted Trey Lance with it. He already owns Mahomes. I still get randomly furious about it, but at least he's in last place.
I did this in a 14 team league. Contender team at time. And currently top of the ranks. My 22 pick is currently looking to be 14, and I grabbed the 2.01 of 21 to grab Carter. Couldn't be happier.
Controlling the market means you get to set the price of they want to draft a player. They if there’s only three options vs 10 options than the price goes up. It’s always good to hold them until they’re at their highest value which would be draft day
Sell at draft time. People will pay top dollar for those picks
> Anyone who says it’s stupid to have assets is stupid. Controlling the market is never a bad thing.
Who is saying that? Where?
Anyone who knows what they are doing would take four firsts in 1 year and 4 firsts in another instead of 8 firsts in a single year.
Then sell* them when they’re at their highest value on draft day. Going into a draft with 8 picks is better than 4. Idk how to explain simple economics
If someone wants to trade into the first round now there’s only 3 people to trade with. They can set the market price higher than if there were 7 people to trade with
Also the post said that the podcast said that
No one is arguing any of these points???? This is the definition of a strawman.
What are you talking about lol
That's what I'lm saying about you. You haven't made a single point yet lmao.
This is you
> Having more picks is good. Economics.
Uhhh okay? Great insight?
So you’re bringing no substance to this conversation? Do you have a point? I said mine and all you’re doing is rambling
Like is there a reason for the random hostility? Lol
He just got out of an argument with a complete moron on a different post and is likely irritated. Cut him some slack
> Anyone who says it’s stupid to have assets is stupid.
That is your original comment. It was hostile.
You have added no substance.
Yes, of course having more picks is good.
I think you’re correct on gaining value. I would rather have 4 high picks in successive years than 8 in one draft. However if I feel that guys in my league are looking to trade up, I would rather be holding the 7 picks to limit the amount of options they have to trade up to. Might garner me a Javonte over a Damien Harris. I could be wrong tho. Just my opinion. Also, I think a lot of guys have the perception of 2022 being a weaker fantasy draft and not wanting to trade up as much as in 23
No one says it's stupid to have assets. It's when a manager always has assets but never wins the title that it becomes stupid.
The post did
I would like to get 7+ for 2023 but I imagine before/during the draft I'd want to trade away 3+ of them. I doubt it ever want to actually draft and keep 7 players from the first round.
Yeah I’ve already flipped a late 1st for Tee Higgins today. It’s just the need to let others into the draft before we get to draft season. It seems necessary
Why not let them in after NFL draft and before fantasy draft? Value of picks will be its highest and people might have an idea of who they want.
Agreed, but we don’t know the mindset of the old Tee Higgins owner. He could be rebuilding as well, and needs to move some scorers to go down in standings and get a higher pick.
In that case, he’s already valuing that 1st higher than someone who is competing. I think a late 1st for Tee is a home run deal for a rebuilder tho.
Assuming you play in SF, let’s just apply those 7 picks to 2020’s class (comparable to 2023 as it stands).
You could have ended up with: Burrow, JTay, Dobbins, Swift, CEH/Akers, Lamb and Jeudy.
That’s pretty damn good!!
Or, worst case: Tua, CEH, Dobbins, Akers, Reagor, Aiyuk and JJeff.
Much different picture. Not as good as that first lot, but still spending 7x firsts to get those players and 3 of them are very solid starters: Dobbins, Jjeff and Akers (if he returns healthy).
What you spend your picks on is as pivotal as how many you have. Difference is, the more picks you have, the higher chance you hit on productive players. More picks = more chances at landing the Jjeff’s and JTaylors.
Nobody should be saying owning picks is stupid - assets are assets.
How you acquired those picks could have been stupid, what you ultimately do with those pick could be stupid. But holding picks is defiantly not stupid. You should stop listening to that podcast.
It's likely you just went full tear down - unfortunately you didn't get '23 first rounders.
You're, fingers crossed, can walk away with both Hall and Spiller. They will be your RB core - I hope to god you've kept your '23 first so that you can add another RB.
5 picks left - add WRs. It's the draft to do it. Burks, Wilson, Bell, London, and Pickens. Lock em down.
Unless you can acquire a proven elite asset, unlikely because you should have targeted them in your tear down - that's your group.
The only things I would want to do:
1. Make sure you've maneuvered around to land 1.01/1.02 Hall/Spiller. You won't find a RB anywhere else.
2. Try to secure as many '23 first as possible. In a tear down, I wouldn't be against moving back (except for Hall/Spiller) to secure '24 firsts. Let's face it you're not getting '23 first unless someone is a taco. '24 is going to be strong too - no point not accumulating future picks.
3. If you have late picks (2-3-4's) try to consolidate them. Package them together to move up.
This is really good advice
Thanks man that’s helpful I appreciate the longer post
You give great advice, so I figured it’d ask you for help lol. I have 3 1sts this year, and 2 next. Definitely rebuilding but I have a solid WR core and likely only one top 4 pick in ‘22. Would you wait for rookie fever to hit and trade back to accumulate 23 picks during the draft? Target then now? Should I break CeeDee down into a Dobbins/Akers and 1 or 2 1st or 2nd rounders? Would love to hear your thoughts bc I’m inexperienced with dynasty!
Don't break elite young assets down - you want to be doing the opposite. Using picks to acquire elite young assets like Lamb.
3 1st - I have the same number. My first move was to try and move up to 1.01 and 1.02. I offered projected (at the time) 1.07, 1.08, 2.04, 2.07 for either of the two picks to attempt to secure Hall/Spiller.
Like you - I also have a top 4 1st. Ill likely add Burks or Wilson with that pick for WR depth. I mean, even ending up with RB-WR isn't likely the worst case if you're ready to compete.
I would 100% hold all '23/24 firsts. But open up your other picks in an attempt to try and secure either or both of the RBs.
In an experience league, you're not likely acquiring a '23 first moving back. Only an idiot would do that. '23 firsts are already more valuable than '22's. The hype is out of hand.
I would try to acquire '23 1sr whenever possible but rookie values will go up at the draft any maybe someone falls in love with a QB or WR (doubtfully but possible).
I’ve seen you comment on a few different posts past few days and all solid takes / advice
This was super helpful, thank you for taking the time to write this! I just rejected 23 1st + 22 2nd and Cam Akers (wasn’t sure about his injury anyway) for CeeDee, which I had been mulling over all day. Definitely can’t afford to ship off elite talent. I’ll try to use my draft capital instead! Thanks again!
Then I'll acquire a 24 first plus a proven young talent. Treat the 24 first like a throw in.
I have 5/8 ‘23 ones
Look at you hitting home runs.
!RemindMe 200 days
Edit: how does remind me work? Lol
In regard to the comment about 23’ firsts, it literally doesn’t matter. Just because this is a defense first draft doesn’t mean that there are no offensive players in the draft that will start next year. It doesn’t matter where the player was drafted as long as they’re going to start. A first in a dynasty draft=/=nfl draft pick in the first. In Dynasty you pick players that will
Start and play and get you points. If you don’t think there’s a dozen top 20 players at their positions in the 22’ draft I have a bridge to sell you in the Sahara
What are you getting on about?
You don't seem to have an idea - players will start and get you points. Yea - you can find anyone to get points, but you're trying to land elite players and those tend to come from elite prospects.
There aren't 20 players in this draft that could have a significant fantasy impact. Not a god damn chance in hell.
Why the F would a first round NFL player equal a first round rookie draft. The vast majority of RBs you want to select don't go round 1 because the position has no actual value in terms of "franchise building"
There absolutely are. My point is that someone doesn’t have to be drafted in the first round of the real NFL draft to be an impact player. Look at Rondale Moore or tutu atwell, if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Those are both flex quality players easily. 2020 was even crazier- Johnathan Taylor, De’Andre Swift, Michael Pittman, Chase Claypool, JK, and shittons of others were outside the first round of the NFL draft. There is always value in first rounders in fantasy no matter how ‘weak’ the class is
FWIW, 2023 picks are down in value now because of the Bijan injury. Combined with the Boutte injury, there's a lot of unknown built into that draft. Until we see how they look when they return, currently the '22 draft is actually pretty safe comparatively.
It’s not stupid to have that many picks, that podcaster specifically probably likes to trade positions around the draft so their perception is skewed. You could instead use your monopoly to auction off a pick to other teams that fall in love with a guy, and still have plenty of picks for yourself. It’s just about strategy and what you do with assets, so you’re the only one who can answer your own question
ALL the first round picks. I want ALL of them. ALL of the time.
Rebuilt last year. Worst to first this year. Traded old (MT), shitty (Hunt) assets and ended up with 5 2021 1sts. Traded 1.10 and 1.12 for a 2022 1st (currently 1.05, but traded away in a trade for Kupp, Dak Prescott, and MG3), a 2023 1st, and 2021's 2.04 (drafted Bateman). Also had 1.02, 1.03, and 1.07. Drafted Pitts, Javonte Williams, and Elijah Moore.
EDIT: Also have 3 x 2022 1sts (currently sitting at 1.06, 1.07, and 1.10 if season ended today) and 2 x 2023 1sts. Plus (and even better to me), I have young elite talent (2020 or 2021 drafted players) at every position--QB--Justin Fields (behind Dak), RB--JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams (with Austin Ekeler), WR--Justin Jefferson and Rashod Bateman(along with Kupp and Diontae), and TE--Pitts.
Easiest way to a rebuild is to hit on young talent in the draft (particularly in a salary cap league like ours). The more lottery tickets you have, the better your chances of hitting.
When you have one more 1st then there are players in the league. Thats when you know you have too many
13 firsts in a 12 team league is definitely too many…
I’m guessing you were listing to bunk bed breakdowns? I disagree with the premise because it is only considering the one draft. If I have every 1st rounder in 2022 and you like a guy then it’s not like there is nothing you can trade. You have 2023 picks, players etc. However, while I don’t think you can have too many picks going into the draft, you can definitely make too many picks. Don’t leave the draft having 7 players you picked in the 1st. Trade out of at least a few of those picks for equivalent 2023 pick+. Try to make it so you go into next draft with 4+ early picks. Then do it again in that’s draft. The only asset in dynasty that is guaranteed to increase in value is future picks and they are the most flexible asset to have.
Yeah that was the dude. I was never intending on taking 7 guys in the 1st. But it just made me think when I listened to him this week. He talks a lot is sense usually
I like his podcast and what threw me off when listening to that episode is what I just said is a theory I picked up from listening to him. He called it the iron bank and you always want to keep assets in there. I just disagree about his argument with limiting the amount of firsts in a year, since I think having more picks just gives you more control. This is all assuming that your league is trade friendly, which seems likely considering that you were able to acquire that many picks.
Yeah it’s my best trading league
Yeah. 10 team SF half PPR
It’s not stupid but it does cap your movement ability & there’s rarely that many prospects that you’d love so it is better to flip some of those into proven players and save some picks for the guys you love
I think I ended last season with 7 2020 1sts, only ended up drafting 4 players. Assets are assets. All about how you use them.
In 12 team I wouldn’t own more than 7 in one class. I would rather diversify.
As long as you don't have to cut good players to add the newly drafted players, you're fine
My roster is terrible so I’m all good there!
Just be patient and wait until rookie fever hits. No such thing as to many firsts. People will be desperate for RBs, and the good wrs.
in one league I had 5 firsts in 2020, and 6 in 2021. Guess who is laughing now at the top of the league?
Assuming you have an active trade market in your league no it's absolutely not a bad thing to have 7 1sts.
You're a monopoly supplier at that point. Whatever podcast you're listening to, what they say makes no sense. Of course there will still be the same amount of potential buyers of your picks regardless how many you own. There are still 11 (or 9 or 13 or whatever) other players in the league and they will still get rookie fever just like any other year. The difference when you're a monopoly supplier is that they have to deal with you and only you and you get to set the price higher than it would be in a competitive market.
In a league with an active trade market, monopolizing the first 2 rounds of one draft is **the** single best way to jumpstart a rebuild. Stick and pick the players with the best profiles, trade out of picks you don't want to make, setting a high price because of your monopoly effect on price all along. You pick up players you like and/or more future picks.
Again this is all assuming active trade market. If you're in a dead league, much of this advantage evaporates and you're stuck unable to maximize your monopoly power and, even worse, forced to draft players with sub-par profiles or reaching for players.
Yeah the league is super active. I’ve traded one 1st (probably the latest one) for Tee Higgins as the owner wanted him gone. But I still have 6 1sts.
Yeah you're already getting excellent deals then. That's very good value for Tee Higgins.
I have 8 22 1st and 4 23 1st in one league. But I basically have no other good assets. Mostly did it as a fun experiment.
I dig it. I take one league seriously and I'm in 3 more on sleeper. Two of those are only $25 a year so I just kind of do whatever the hell I feel like doing
Trade out of some picks for 2023 1sts.
Who needs trade partners when you get all the players you want? Also, you could move from 2022 1st to 2023 1st so I think it’s a fallacy that there would not be trade partners
It limits moving up and down sure, but it certainly doesn’t limit flipping for future picks or players. There’s going to be six owners in your league come draft time that are going to be wishing they had a first.
I have 5 2022 1sts and 4 2023 1sts. My league is new and they have no clue how valuable rookie picks become close to the draft. I’m trying to get one more 2023rd before the trade deadline next week.
Also I didn’t even do a complete tear down. Got lucky a few desperate teams needed some players I had. I’ll be right there with ya in a few months. Let’s go
The key is to plan to wait until rookie fever peaks then move them for a haul. Keep a few for some rookies you like and capitalize on the off season boredom and rookie hype.
I can see the worry, but they are still huge assets even if you trade them away before the draft when rookie feeder hits.
To give you an example, I’m currently in the middle of a full rebuild myself.
I have 3x 2022 1sts, 6x 2023 1sts and 3x 2024 1sts. I’m likely to keep many of those.
Use them to build around young receivers and QBs first and then RBs. I’ve got Swift, DK, Higgins, Elijah Moore and Mooney to build around. Those picks should come in handy.
I wouldn’t go for any more than you currently have. The challenge with taking so many 1sts is it limits the amount of trading partners for you to move up and down the board. Plus there will inevitably be some players you don’t like which you might feel obliged to take “cause of the value”. At 7 it’s not a huge deal but I’d try and buy 2023 1sts from now on.
I’d take 20 if I could bro dont listen to tht podcast again
Try and consolidate all that within the first 5 picks
The later first becomes just as much of a crap shoot as the 2nd round.
Get those "sure fire" studs
Right now in 1 qb league I have 5 first rounders and they're projected picks 1-5. My core is Kylar, Trey Lance, Dillon, Etienne, Dobbins, DJ Moore, Jeudy, Rondale Moore, Goedart. I'm excited for how things turn out
Yeah that’s decent.
I have TLaw, Wentz, Teddy B, Love as my QBs
D Harris, Stevenson, Javonte, Gainwell as my RBs
Jeudy, JJ, Bateman, Tee Higgins, Shenault, Marshall, St Brown as WRs
Fant, Trautman and Engram as TEs
So I reckon I have an ok base to push on
There is no such thing as too many first round picks.
You're in a great position. No such thing as too many imo, once draft comes you will get offers. Make sure you keep the picks needed to get your guys
Just traded a late 1st for Tee Higgins. I like him a lot
Had 8 of 14 in last year’s draft, and everyone was calling on them the week of our draft. Keep them all in your pocket and refuse to sell until the fever pitch of your league’s draft season is upon everyone.
I have 7 2023 firsts and 4 2023 seconds :)
It’s usually a bad idea because the owner of the picks imo falls into the same rookie craze as everyone else.
Trading most or even all of those picks for proven players could build a dominant team.
Thats too many. What you SHOULD do is during the draft trade them because they will never be more valuable. Take who you want in the draft and trade the rest.
If you end up with the top 2 I would take the top 2 RB and trade the rest
I mean if you got taxi spots or enough guys you want to drop then hell yes I myself had six I believe and I traded a few away for ETN and other young players pitman, cam akers, saquan, sitting on 2 now with a very good looking team going into 22. So just depends on your rebuild strat. I do suggest trying to let a few of those go for a proven WR1 or RB1. Don't know how rookies will pan out and I'd way rather have a Pittman or marquise brown guys of those age and caliber
I have 7 firsts in my main dynasty league as well and ideally I would probably only use 3 of those picks while moving the others for players or 2023 picks....the good thing about draft picks is that they don't have bad weeks or injuries to lose value...come draft time everyone wants to hit on the next breakout rookie
Sucks it’s a shitty draft class when you loaded up
It is not ideal. It was an orphan team that needed/ needs a lot of work
There should still be some fantasy studs out there. Regardless, impressive to acquire that many picks. GL
Realistically trades that move up and down don’t happen often. People talk about it more than it actually happening. Those picks will be valuable.
I never want to go into a draft with more than 4 but that's just me.
I've owned 8 in a single draft, but by draft day I won't have more than 4.
Yeah that’s a fair point. I was never intending to use my 7 1sts. But even when you’re OTC in the draft if 7 too many? Would the other guys even care at that point if you totally own the whole draft
I just think you are really limiting your ceiling by doing that.
I just think its easier to hit on 3 firsts each year than 7 at once.
I actually prefer to have as many picks as possible in a rookie draft or none at all. My thought process is that you’re not going to hit on every pick. Let’s say there’s 12 1st round picks. Let’s say you have 1:1:1 hit:even:miss odds. Hits are going to be worth ~2 1sts the next year, misses worth about a 2nd and the rest ~1st the next year. Let’s say you have 6 picks that end up hitting at that ratio… you end up with 2 guys worth 2 1sts each, 2 worth 1 1st each, and 2 worth 1 2nd each. That’s a return on investment of 2nds—and I’d say this is a very conservative estimate. I’d rather have that situation than just a pick or 2 and risk missing with that pick or 2.
Sorry for the long reply.
Also, the logic this podcast uses rarely seems to work out. People are generally willing to pay a lot to trade up to the first few spots, but after that you can’t get much value without trading down almost a full round in my opinion. For example, you won’t get much from most people trading down from 1.06 to 1.10, but you can usually get a first round pick the next year to go from 1.06 to 2.06.
Ok thanks man that helps
One thing I would recommend though is trying to move one or two of those picks for 23 picks. I recently traded a mid 22 1st for a 23 1st and 2nd. Getting the added 2nd is nice, but it’s also a great insurance policy: let’s say you trade one of your firsts for a 23 1st and use your other picks on 2 QBs, 2 RBs, and 2 WRs. If you get unlucky and both your RBs are busts, this gives you an extra shot or 2 at RB the next year.
If instead you keep that 7th 1st in 2022, and use it on a WR for example. Now you have to trade for RB which is fine, but going to cost you more.
Try and trade 3 for 23 class. Also people fein for picks come draft day. Usually can get some establishes players.
You just better hope it’s a good class
It seems ok. Can always trade back
You don't want to trade back - you want to try to trade to acquire '23 firsts (unlikely) so '24 firsts are the goal.
Take Hall, Spiller and then worry about making deals for future firsts but keep yourself inside that top 14 for SF leagues.
Our league only allows picks for 1 year in advance tho which is shit. So we won’t be able to go to 2024
At our draft, it opens '24 picks.
It allows that added flexibility. Does your league do that too?
It should but some league members have objected to it. They just want to pay for 1 year at a time
People in your league trade? Must be nice.
Obsessively. I’m in a lot of leagues. Some are shit. One trades constantly. They are all insane trading fantasy obsessed maniacs. It’s great
Well if you have 12 in a draft, I'd be concerned if I had 13 1sts...but honestly you can always trade them. I wouldn't use them to make ever pick, just the guys in each tier you like.
If they all but then none. I mean one can be too many. If you draft Ryan leaf.
Trade downs are valuable to me to. I love early 2nd rounders personally.
To me each year there are a lot of guys that fall into being worthy of the 12-15 range picks. You can trade down to a 2.02 or 2.03 pick and take a guy that is similar talent to a guy that may have gone 1.10 or 1.11
If you have 7, you don't really need trade partners to move up or down?
I have 6 22 firsts, 1 2nd, 3 3rds, and 2 4ths.
In 23, I have 4 firsts, 2 2nds, and a third and 4th.
In 24 I have my full compliment.
I really hope I don’t botch thsi.
I feel like if you can acquire 7 2022 1sts your team probably wasn't bad at all and you probably shouldn't have torn it to the ground. Probably could have just re-tooled.
I at one point owned x7 2021 firsts. Accumulated them by trading back in years and targeting that class. I ended up trading one in a move back deal to get Herbert (1 QB). Got Pitts, Chase, Javonte, Waddle, ETN, and TLaw and still moved back and accumulated a 2023 first and some useful players. People will pay when the draft comes. I openly told a guy I wanted waddle, and he didn’t believe me so he moved up 1 pick (we swapped) so he could take Devonta. I got 2.4 out of the deal
No such thing as too many 1sts
Who cares about moving up when you have all the picks?
My team was trash last year, ended up with 6 firsts through trades, and I'm back in the playoff hunt already with Javonte Williams, Devonta Smith, Waddle, Friermuth, Etienne, and Zach Wilson. Still not a true contender, but pretty cool how good my team is already because of those picks. Looking forward to Etienne and Wilson putting up numbers for me, but the others have been great so far
Trade half of them for 2023 1sts. The draft class is waaaaaaaay better
Nahh even in thinner draft classes like this, it's still very valuable to have 1st round picks - especially the closer you get to draft day.
May not be able to move up/down but you certainly can acquire talent from other rosters who you can rebuild with.
I don’t think it’s a bad thing. I think deciding to use all of them would probably be a mistake considering the 22 class isn’t as strong as some of the previous or future classes. And because you’re bound to get some great offers. Value is the biggest thing so having the picks is nice. But obviously what you end I’m doing with them is more important
I’d have that many sounds like so much fun
Having 7 x 1sts right now isn't an issue at all, but if you use all 7 1sts to draft rookies, I think that would be a mistake. As rookie fever hits after the combine/pro days and obviously the draft. You need to use those picks as assets to trade to get proven players (even if your rebuilding).
If your league has 12 people 13 first is too many
Lol what podcast said this? Need to avoid it
I’d snag a few of my guys and then either trade for you established guys or get more 2023 picks
Sam Presti, is that you?
Try to turn some of those into 23 firsts after you figure out what ones you need to keep. That’s the key to the rebuild right now