So basically would you trade TLaw 1:1 for Chase? No I probably wouldn't.


Also depends on if it’s super flex or not. Super flex it’s a no brainer Edit my bad didn’t see this was super flex


Way too early to tell imo. If Trevor ends up being a perennial top 10 QB then he was still the right choice.


Thats why I posed the question, are the god-like starts by the other two enough to change your mind already?


"God like" for Najee? While a good prospect, he has been volume fueled. And while Chase has been JJ hot, he has cooled, but is more replaceable than QB. Nothing touches a QB prospect as long standing as TL. They do not come around often, bust at extreme rate and tend to start off rougher. Imagine asking this question of Payton Manning or Aikman in their "shitty" rookie years. This isnt a flash in the pan QB prospect, with one hot college year, who flamed out. This is a multi-multi year, proven top prospect...on a barren shitty team stripped for parts, going through a mega rebuild with plenty of injuries and turmoil. FFS.


I agree with your assessment of Najee but he’s also pretty much locked into that situation for years so we should just assume that’s how it’s going to be for him. Takes a bit of mental iron for me to do that too, I don’t think he’s as good as his fantasy numbers but he’s roughly what we thought CEH would be, in terms of situation making him great


Nothing is locked in our guaranteed. Trent Richardson looked locked into that volume.


Do you trust the Jags with that rebuild tho?


Bad teams can have good fantasy QBs. Trust them to go win super bowls? No. Trust TLaw? Yeah


They can but it’s difficult to be a good qb with a bad line and bang average receiving talent. I’m not trying to be a downer just that it’s a consideration to think about what the jags will put around him.


Oh no doubt. This isn't like a goodish team fell into 1.1 like the Colts...but I kinda think that's a good parallel. The Colts had a shitty OLine and bad front office and yet Luck was Luck. He produced and you knew he held his value for years ahead of any present time. Talent won out. Sure, the bad OLine caused an early retirement, but that would be bad process to use as confirmation bias. End of the day, you bet on talent. Situations change faster than you can hope to project.


I do bet on talent although I also try to factor in opportunity. No use in being talented (Scotty millers etc. in Tampa) if you are buried on the depth chart. There aren’t a lot of teams but some are just ran terribly Jets/ Jags/ Houston and while it works at times for fantasy (due to talent being so important)particularly for dynasty I feel the ceiling is somewhat capped by the uncertainty that could be round the corner - “this is blah blahs fourth OC in four years”


I'm sure you can respect why anyone would roll their eyes using a 6th round WR against a 5 star QB who have been proven for seasons over seasons on his highest stage. If you make it on an NFL field, you are talented. But a QB with his pedigree, leeway and talent are beyond rare. Yet we have posts going about so much talent at WR that the position will be further devalued as the next few seasons go on. So it comes down simply to QB value/need/replaceability > than RB and faaar greater than WR. You know TLaw will not only get 5/6/7 years minimum, but will improve as they do. Don't let Herbert's rookie season spoil expectations like OBJ did to WRs. Is Jax an ideal or even average situation? No. But it's also not crazy to look beyond, when we are one season removed from watching the RB 5/6 jump 2 multi year generational talents because of situation and look at how that has turned out. Yeah JT landed in a great spot....but Swift in a beyond terrible spot. Swift is getting debated in the top 5 despite that shitty situation.


I think some people have this fond memory of good (terrible) Blake Bortles and think that's the norm instead of a historical exception


Blake was so bad before he was reached for, and is not a good comp at all. Garbage time king, shitty talent and yet like most 1st round QBs...was granted 3+ years. TLaw will most likely start for 5-15 years. And 5 would make that kind of prospect an extreme outlier.


Thing is, Najee will almost certainly continue to see that volume for multiple seasons.


They said the same thing for Trent Richardson.


Did TRich play for tomlin and start the first 10 games of his career as the overall RB3 (PPr)? Odd comparison IMO.


It wasn't meant to be 1 for 1, but simply put the brakes on crowning a 3.6 ypc rookie "god like".


Yeah I don’t really see Najee as “god like”. But I do know Tomlin has a very long history of heavily utilizing a bell cow back, and opportunity/volume is king in fantasy football.


Also, the offense, including the line, is mediocre. I think Najee is putting up respectable numbers considering Ben is not what he once was.


The #3 RB in fantasy football is a “good prospect” lol? What kind of performance would it take to admit that Najee is off to a godly start, nothing but #1?


Godly? I suppose better than 3.6ypc


He’s doing just fine considering the O-line he’s behind.


Never said he wasn't. Just questioned being coined godly.


My only worry is the jags stay dumpster trash for a few years . T law will prevail doe


Certainly possible. But betting on a talent like JLaw who was a supreme prospect for as long as he has been is generally a good bet.


Nope. You gotta be much more patient with QBs.


No definitely not


I mean, Chase was drafted at ~~#4~~ #5 overall. While your opinion and valuation of the QBs don't have to necessarily swing as hard or drop if they have an average or worse showing year 1, in the meantime, the skill position player might have massively increased their own value. Chase has the potential to be the WR1 (I'm a Jefferson guy) overall in dynasty now. Go see where he goes in start-ups. Of course it's perfectly OK to take him 1.01. The answer ro the question is to be true to your process, but take in all the new information and be open to change your mind (and then use that to improve your own process).


He went 5th but yes


I can't help but notice the WR1 slots in around 1.8 in startups for SF. So if you are hoping for a higher ceiling, it can't be WR... Right?


If you’re picking 1.01, you’re likely rebuilding or fleeced someone/overpaid to get there. I still go TLaw just because of upside and shelf life.


Hindsight is 2020, but if I'm taking anyone over Tlaw, it's Pitts. WR are so easy to replace, and with 6 or 7 consistent TEs, I'll take the young TE who is producing mid TE 1 numbers as a rookie.


Sooooo Freirermuth?


Friermuth is 16th in points per game. 14th in total points among TEs. The concerning thing about him is he’s 21st in total yards but tied for 3rd in touchdowns. He’s a solid player but at this point him and Pitts aren’t even comparable.


I think Najee, TLaw, Pitts, Chase, Waddle, Smith, Javonte, Fields, Lance, and Mac all for sure go before Muth if people did their rookie drafts today. Elijah Moore, ETN, Bateman, Rondale, Toney, Rhamondre, and Elijah Mitchell are all valid options at going before or after Muth. Maybe Zach Wilson in a SF if you still believe for some reason or Khalil Herbert if you’re a Montgomery owner. So honestly I think Muth’s value in the draft hasn’t drastically changed. He’s anywhere from a late 1st to a late second depending on your needs in this hypothetical late season rookie draft.


He wasn’t though, Freiermuth was like a late second, to a third based on the data for most drafts or mocks. He’d definitely be higher based on how he has done.


I’m seeing Friermuth as 15th in ADP in a 1 QB format based on fantasy pros ADP. Bump up Jones, Lance, and Fields and he was right at a mid 2nd rounder. I’m not convinced he’d go much higher. He’s scoring a bunch of TDs but the yards are lacking and the QB situation is questionable.


In TE Premium, I think Pitts would be on Chase’s level in a 2021 rookie redraft.


I’ve tried sending the house for pitts in te premium


I traded two 1sts and Gronk for him in our TEP league.


Wrong on both counts. Our King Elijah Moore should have always been the 1.1.


Let's all appreciate how great the first round was SF or not this year Chase, Najee, Pitts, Williams, Waddle, Smith all have been good. ETN got hurt so still has potential. Lawrence has been great, Lance, Fields, Mac have all shown flashes, and Wilson is still up in the air with at least a little hope. Then there's guys like Bateman, Carter, and Moore that have been good.


> Lawrence has been great, Lance, Fields, Mac have all shown flashes Switch Mac and Lawrence in that sentence


Right? Mac is playing well consistently, but it isn’t necessarily going to show up on a fantasy stat sheet yet. I think Belichick is writing the textbook on starting a QB their rookie season. Great running game that takes the edge off opposing defenses, playing solid defense to eliminate the need for high-volume offensive production, and keeping them upright and playing. Guys like Zach Wilson and TLaw aren’t getting much in the way of good experience if they’re hurt or riffing off of broken plays all season.


I don't know if it's Belichick writing a textbook so much as seeing what a good team can do for a rookie QB. Most rookie QBs are drafted by bad teams, so it shouldn't be too surprising that Mac looks best so far. This actually has me low key excited about the QBs next year, I'm hoping some slide. Like imagine if Ben retires and the Steelers draft Corral?


Are you trying to tell me that Mason Rudolph isn’t the heir apparent to the Pittsburgh QB throne?


Oh shit, I forgot about Mason Rudolph! \s


Thank you!! Mac is the best performer from this QB class hands down so far. Helps he went to a better situation but still gotta give the man his due


I love deep classes. Even Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle went 2.01 at the latest.


I have Waddle and love to see him be the #1 target there. These two were kind of shrugged off for multiple reasons before the season and they look great.


Mac looks good, and with low level talent at WR


Lawrence has not been great lol. Dude has looked rough for most of the year so far. So yeah, swap him with Mac. Mac has looked like a seasoned vet and looks great. Lawrence shows flashes, but way too inconsistent and a lot of erratic throws so far.


So true. I fear we get a dose of hard reality this year regarding the 22 class.


Right now? Yes, even easily I would say (I wouldn't like to make the decision lol). It is entirely reasonable to debate whether Mac Jones would go above Trevor Lawrence in a SF draft actually. Up to preference, if you believe in the talent and potential in Lawrence, or the safe pick in Jones. This moment, I'm still picking Lawrence. A smart player would not take Harris at 1.01 from what we've seen so far. I wouldn't take him over QB1 if Chase went 1.01.


The TLaw truthers will probably roast you for taking Mac over him. But that's the beauty of it. I took Mac at 1.12 and think at that spot it was the better value than TLaw at 1.01. especially considering how much people payed up to trade up to get TLaw. Now in hindsight it was def the better choice(so far obviously)


No way one would even remotely consider Mac Jones over TLaw. Mac Jones is doing well but he’s barely producing mid QB2 numbers. Mac Jones has 0 ceiling. TLaw has all the ceiling you can ask for


>barely producing mid QB2 numbers. What does this mean? He's the QB 18 on the season as a rookie on a winning team that totally trusts him, I don't get how 'barely' figures into this. I like Tlaw over Mac too, but from my point of view it's closer than you (and a lot of the community) are making out from my perspective.


QB18 is the wrong way to look at this. He’s QB31 on a ppg basis, and is only ~0.5 ppg better than TLaw. Mac certainly looks like a solid young QB2, but it’s an accurate statement (if not generous) to say he’s barely producing QB2 numbers.


What are you confused about? He’s QB18 that’s barely mid QB2 production is it not? I own Mac in a ton of places and think he’s a great dynasty asset. Still TLaw > jones


But macs doing it as a rookie with limited WR talent around him, so why are we to assume he has 0 ceiling?


Rushing upside


Brady is pretty good in fantasy


Mac Jones has Kirk Cousins/Matt Ryan potential. Stop acting like he is struggling.


Do you read? Where have I said Mac is struggling. In fact, the post you are replying to I say Mac is doing really well.


You really don't think the stability factor wouldn't be a thing for some managers? Of course Lawrence's ceiling is higher. Everyone knows that. As for the fantasy scoring route, want to check their logs? What has Lawrence been scoring recently?


That's just it though. Trevor has been 'bad'. Mac Jones has been 'awesome'. And yet Jones has barely outscored Trevor.


You got it exactly!


I own Mac Jones in my main SF league and wouldn’t hesitate to trade him for TLaw


I'd take Lawrence over Jones myself. There's been bad, but not enough to think it won't get better with more experience and a better offense.


So if you would take TLaw over jones. And so would every single other dynasty owner…what’s the point of your previous comment?


He's been very bad recently


No one wants stability at 1.01, they want upside because their team is usually shit and needs the help.


This exactly


I mean that’s false. Mac isn’t going to be Brady, but Brady was obviously highly successful from a fantasy perspective in the same offense for many years. Mac won’t be as good as Brady, but is still going to be highly serviceable for a long time


It’s fantasy football, where in the last decade or so the only statue to deliver QB1 seasons year after year is the goat. Ben and Arod had some rushing upside earlier in their careers but rarely do you see a pure pocket passer be league winning.


Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees All HoFers but the list doesn't end with Brady.


Like I said, Mac will never be QB1 but he is/will be serviceable QB, especially in a superflex league. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if in 3 years he is still > Trevor from a fantasy perspective due to the patriots situation


I don’t disagree that Mac will be a long time serviceable starter. But gimme the guy that has THE QB1 upside over Mac Jones who will be a middling QB2 for his career. If you wouldn’t trade jones for TLaw straight up then that’s a taco move.


How about super taco? A guy in my league traded Lawrence, a mid 23 1st and Gainwell for Mac Jones and Zack Moss. He still doesn't know why we suspected collusion.


Well collusion is a big thing to assume. This is just a terrible trade. What was his reasoning?


TLaw still #1 this isn’t really that close for me


Chase the 1.01 for me


1.1 Chase 1.2 Najee 1.3 Pitts 1.4 Lawrence


It's SF, if anything maybe Pitts than lawrence.


As someone who drafted them all, I still would take Lawrence, Chase, Najee, Pitts (in the order I selected them).


In super flex? No chance. Lawrence is as fail-proof of a QB prospect as you can get at the NFL level. At minimum, he’ll get 5 years as a starter in the NFL. Watch a Jaguars game. While yes, TLaw is a rookie and makes some mistakes, his arm is insane and he can do it all: he has excellent touch on the ball, can throw deep, is extremely mobile, has good pocket feel and generally does a good job reading defenses. The talent is NOT the issue here. You can tell TLaw belongs as a starter already in the NFL. The problem is the players around him. TLaw has to be near the top in “dropped explosive passes.” You can cut up 4+ big drops nearly every single week. It’s actually insane how many yards have been left on the field by that WR group. The O-line is middle of the pack and the run game has been awful with Robinson injured up until last week. The offense has no identity and the biggest playmaking WR on that offense, DJ Chark, is hurt. Marvin Jones is showing his age and Laviska just disappears for entire games. Jamaal Agnew/Dan Arnold have been the Jax WR1’s for the past 4 weeks… Thats not good! When Etienne is back + *probably* Chark + whatever off-season additions + rookies drafted I think next year looks a ton better for TLaw in terms of weapons.


Both are worth well more tbh. Chase is the WR1 or 2 overall (Jefferson) and Harris is a top5 RB overall. Lawrence isn’t even the unquestioned 2021 QB1 at this point. I’d still probably take him at 1.03 after Chase then Harris, but his passing production is worse than pretty much anyone envisioned in his rookie year. Mac just flat out looks better right now. Fields and Lance obviously have the huge rushing upside. It’s a legitimate argument imo.


I would personally take Pitts 1, Najee 2, Trey Lance 3, and then TLaw before I took Chase, only due to WR density. Yes Chase is spectacular, but so are like a dozen other young WRs. Just harder to find the other positions. Some people would rather just take the built in advantage of Chase and I get that, I just think the drop off in points per game of him to a comparable WR isn’t that harsh and it’s much easier to find someone to replace him.


100% valid, would tend to agree. Although idk if Trey Lance belongs in that convo.


I was never a Lance fan, but I also think it would be odd to have him over Lawrence when he really hasn’t done anything to change his stock, unless you had him over TLaw to begin with. But honestly to each their own. I luckily had 1.01 and 1.02 in this past draft and got TLaw and Pitts. Still happy with the picks.


Only thing Lance has done to improve his stock is get a ton of rushes in the opportunity he got, especially designed ones. The coaching staff is prepared to let him run. QB rushing upside is great. The emergence of Deebo shows the team he plays for has great weapons too. Primarily though, it’s not that his stock has gone up so much as TLaw’s has gone down. Lawrence is almost certainly the better player. But Jacksonville is so bad and so poorly run historically, that I can see them holding him back, perhaps forever? Lawrence is much more of a traditional passer, so usually he’ll need to be competitive or winning to give you fantasy output, whereas Lance can Jalen Hurts his way to big fantasy games even if things are going poorly.


I’m a Lance owner and I’m genuinely worried with how raw and bad he looked in limited preseason/regular season action. What makes you rank him so high?


He got 15+ rushes. Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are what make me rank him so high. They traded 2 first round picks for him and he’s on a decent to good team. He has job insurance for at least 2 years because of the trade. I’ll take the rushing upside for 2 years over Jacksonville’s situation. Lawrence is almost certainly the better QB, but they’re holding him back now and there’s no guarantee they won’t continue to.


- Chase you can make an argument for - Najee I’m not sold on, think his shelf life will be short End of the day it’s super flex so I’d still take TLaw if I was on the clock. Position value overrides the strong start from the other two




TLaw on the Chiefs or Cowboys would be killer. Jags/Jets are gonna gonna have to develop their QB. Mahomes/Jackson had 14+ games to watch from the sidelines and learn. These rookies went 0-100, and with not a lot of help. Compare Gurley to Najee. Gurleys volume led to injuries and a burnout. And the cliff was steep.




I took Najee at 1.02 with Zeke and Monty in reserve. Part of me wishes i went Chase instead though




I had a startup dynasty year where we had to draft this years rookie picks in our startup draft. Got the 1.01 and the 1.05 and snagged myself both Tlaw and Chase 😎


Superflex? Nah. Potential 15-20 years of a QB1 upside is too hard to pass.


As someone who went TLaw and 1.1 then chase at 1.2 I'm very happy


Still 10/10 going with TLaw if I need a QB. Still probably going with him.


Way too hard to judge a rookie QB who is thrown into the starting role right away and expected to be the savior. There’s still time for any of these QBs (Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, Jones) to have a very successful career and be considered 1.01 worthy in a SF league. Let me illustrate with these 3 rookie QB examples: A: 58.1% comp., 3,398 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 6.6 Y/A, 80.4 QB Rating B: 58.3% comp., 4,042 yards, 22 TDs, 15 INTs, 7.6 Y/A, 84.2 QB Rating C: 56.7% comp., 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 6.5 Y/A, 71.2 QB rating . . . . These QBs? A= Dalton, B= Winston, C= Peyton


Guys..go get a haul for Najee. Do it now.


Tlaw is still my 1.01 but Jamar Chase has surpassed Trey Lance as my 1.02. I think Tlaw is still a player that is really special. Combo of being in a terrible spot + all their weapons getting hurt has dampened his rookie year. Chase is a stud and imo I would not blame anybody putting him at 1.01. He might be a top 5 dynasty wr already. Lance is still my 1.03 due to the upside of his rushing abilities. My rankings before season in SF 1) Tlaw 2) Lance 3) Chase 4) Najee 5) Fields 6) Wilson 7) ETN 8) Pitts Now 1) Tlaw 2) Chase 3) Lance 4) Najee 5) Pitts 6) Fields 7) Wilson 8) Javonte


No love for Fields? I’d personally go Pitts Fields Lawrence Chase


Lmfao no chance Fields should go over Chase and definitely not Lawrence, Fields has looked awful


He was unreal in that Steelers game


Do you watch bears games? Fields is not a good QB


Need to see Fields next year with a new coach.


Typically 2 HCs in 2 years is not a good thing for a qbs development.


Typically you don't have Matt Nagy or Urban Meyer kicking you in the dick every waking day either


Thats on the FO for taking a rookie QB and pairing them up with a HC and play caller who has shown to be unsuccessful at best


What's that have to do with the fact that Fields and Lawrence would both be better with new HCs next year?


I'm saying if a team isn't committed to the HC and staff, why draft a 1st round QB. If there were any talks about if this doesn't happen they won't be here, then don't grab the QB. The last thing you need is a QB changing coaches, systems, terminology, and a fuck ton of roster turn over.


If you watch so much you would know Nagy is the problem boss


This question is absurd if you are a real dynasty player. Najee is a top 3 dynasty RB now meaning he’s likely going top 5 OVR in startups. Chase would be second as one of the first WRs taken off the board and TLaw is a long way behind them in the mid their QB range. A redo of a rookie draft should reflect that and I think there are maybe 4 rookies ahead of TLaw in value right now and you’re comparing him to assets much superior to him currently.


What you said may apply to single QB leagues but not SF


I only play in super flex and have done nearly 50 startups since I started playing SF. Elite young RBs usually go after a couple elite QBs but generally elite RBs and WRs are drafted over middle range QBs almost always


Lawrence as a middle range QB?


Yes. Where would you have him in ranked in dynasty? I can think of about 10-12 QBs I’d have over him in dynasty


I’d take the top 6 over him for sure. Murray, Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, Dak, Herbert. I think that next tier is Russ, Burrow, Stafford, and Lawrence and I’d be comfortable with reasoning putting any of them at the top or bottom of that tier so I’d say QB7-10.


Well to rank Lawrence that high would have to be based on personal bias because he hasn’t shown anything that warrants him being in that tier. I’m willing to bet he’s ranked a lot lower in actual adp when real startups start happening in the off-season


Aren’t all personal rankings created based on personal bias? What 10-12 QBs would you have above him?


Well you named 9 already so on top of those 9 I’d add Hurts, Rodgers, potentially Deshaun depending on what happens with his situation and then Mac Jones and Fields are potentially the players I would maybe or maybe not take over him depending on each of their ROS


Do you have a lot of confidence Hurts and Watson are long term starters?