Will the human colonies on Mars eventually declare independence from Earth like European colonies did from Europe?

Will the human colonies on Mars eventually declare independence from Earth like European colonies did from Europe?


Would require significant resource independence from Earth.


They would use the belters


These inners. Always think they know best.


Dees innas, always tinkin' day know bes! Ftfy


Sasa ke? Belta lowda




We gotta talk about that ride


you remind me of someone... just missing the hat


You go into a room to fast, the room eats you


Oye, bossmang, for come to join us on r/beltalowda, ya? Bist Bien alles la


Not sure if this is a Troll of World of WarCraft or a Belter from The Expanse, but either way: well done!


Never been soo happy to understand the whole of this thread.


Beltalowda are beratna, copain !


And with this one sentence, I am eternally grateful the books aren’t written with as heavy an accent.


Fun fact: the accent they use in the series is the lightest one out of I believe 3 different varieties of "thickness" they tested out; originally it was supposed to be much more like a true creole language.


That is a fun fact! If it were any thicker I would have absolutely needed subtitle translations. No other way around it.


I actually like that trend in books - it makes portrayals of marginalized groups less bad, and it does a lot to help the reader's quality of life.


*hand gestures a nod in agreement*


Came here for this, was not disappointed.


Damn skinnies. Never know whats good for them


Dey cut off owe air, dey cut off owe watta. Fuk da innas beratna.


Ereluf Beltalowda, Owka Beltalowda. Rise up beratna y sesata


The Expanse is really onto something tho. Eventually, water will be a rare resource and everyone everywhere will fight for it.


I absolutely adore the thought of all the struggles that went into the book. Particularly around gravity and the lack of. The layout of the ships and the fact that they flip and use their main thruster for breaking. All things that I think every single sci-fi should adopt.


Also how they treat the dangers of going too fast


Dangers of too much acceleration, not going to fast in particular. Unless by that you mean meeting up with another object.


A wild stealth asteroid has appeared


Every time we demand to be heard, they hold back our water, owkwa beltalowda, ration our air, ereluf beltalowda, until we crawl back into our holes, imbobo beltalowda, and do as we are told!


Realistically they're going to have to be nearly resource independent from day one. With how long it takes to get to Mars (plus launch windows) you'd need a couple of years worth of all supplies on hand otherwise - even then, all it would take is one fire or meteor impact or intentional sabotage for the entire colony to starve with months still until the next resupply.


Resource independence means mining, extracting, cultivating and refining all raw materials needed on a large enough volume to perpetuate a civilization as technologically advanced as ours. That means they would have to manufacture from scratch anything from medical supplies to robotics to nuclear reactors. Mars won't get independence for hundreds of years after the first settlements.


Unless the colony has Matt Damon and a potato, then everything will be fine


It requires more than resource independence - that would cover survival but for actual growth of the colony they will be dependence on Earth for technology and information. New and better ways of farming on Mars or developing infrastructure will require research done on Earth, along with having new parts/equipment sent out


That's actually the easy part. They could do that in a decade or two. The hard part is the Super Space Cancer. No magnetosphere around Mars to protect Martians from cosmic radiation.


Well, most colony buildings would likely need to be underground for a variety of reasons, including that one. Lava tubes were mentioned at one point, I think? Or maybe that was the moon.


The Expanse actually had the first plausible response to this I've seen in pop media. The colonies are built into cliffsides and underground.


Red Mars is a series of fiction books that also depicts a scientifically-plausible colonization and terraforming of Mars. Pretty good read, although a bit science heavy, and they also build their initial habitat underground until they invent the technology to basically create a magnetic shield around their outdoor colony


[Mars trilogy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_trilogy) by Kim Stanley Robinson, good read indeed!


It's fantastic. It took me a couple years to read them because they're so long and science dense, but I loved them.


They're also all built inside the Mariner Valley, which you could conceivably dome over considerable portions of and have a very generous amount of both horizontal and vertical living space for both people and whatever other earth life they brought with them.


>Mariner Valley That valley is not so narrow as you might think (up to 200 km).


I am aware of its size, yes, and not only would not not start at the widest point, but it's still a protected inset feature, and if you're talking building a permanent settlement on the red planet, you want to think very, very big, for your mid-term buildout goals. Keeping a large population of humans physically and psychologically healthy means bringing a whole ecology with you, so that means setting aside green spaces. Historical evidence suggests that humans, like most animals, don't breed well while crowded, so this whole (possibly literal) dog and pony show is going to require an order of magnitude more room than most people imagine.


Yup, but the radiation will be the biggest long term hurdle regardless. Even with modern shielding, just the trip to Mars, is a pretty staggering amount of radiation compared to what we are accustomed to on Earth. Long term terraforming plans will likely include schemes to reheat the core to kickstart the magnetosphere, or build a geosynchronous station to provide a magnetic shield.


Radiation shielding is easy, it's a fairly simple, if tedious, engineering problem. The hard part is keeping a fairly stable population of one of the most complex organisms that has ever existed (that being us), along with all the other living things needed to keep them fed, healthy, and sane over a long stretch of time. Historically we've never even been successful at managing to create stable, much less positive, population in a city (wait, I see you staring at me like I'm nuts and saying that wtf, city populations have exploded.. well, yes, the number of people >in< cities have increased.. by importing them from excess populations in the hinterlands >outside< said cities), much less a sealed, initially very cramped tin can, on another planet, where the sheer expense of importing more colonists means your whole colony is fucked if you can't maintain an rF of at least 1.9, maaaybe 1.8 if you're heavily subsidizing immigration. You also have other fun and exciting related factors, like cramped, heavily interconnected living spaces meaning you could be one mutated virus away from flatlining the whole project, and in those conditions and tight margins with very little ability to absorb failure in depth, it wouldn't take much more than a sniffle to utterly bugger the entire works. tldr engineering is fairly easy, or at least predictable, compared to the weird, dark oceans of the life sciences.


People forget that the trend in global population is still movement of people from rural areas to urban ones. Rural birthrates and family sizes are on average much larger than those in urban areas. 1851 was the first time the population of a country anywhere in the world was more than 50% urban (that was unsurprisingly Great Britain due to leading the industrial revolution), but we've only surpassed 50% urban population globally in the last 10 years iirc.


Radiation shielding is easy to find on Mars, all you need is mass. On the trip there it is harder because you don't want to carry a lot of extra mass. One solution is to limit each person to a single round-trip as radiation effects are cumulative. If Mars is terraformed, the atmosphere would protect them. Here on Earth our atmosphere is our primary protection against cosmic radiation.


You need to bring a lot of water, so put it between the outer and inner hull. Water blocks radiation. Also if you are using a nuclear drive your able to generate a lot of power, and you can make a portable magnetosphere with an electro magnet.


20 years to fully develop all necessary technology? I think it wouls be more like a 50-100 years.


That’s a pretty bold claim the complexity of making a sandwich is often non-trivial.


Independently mining every single element/mineral used by an advanced society in a couple of decades? No.


The more realistic answer is probably "they will be dependent on Earth for resources but will still demand independence, attempt to secede, then blame Earthlings for letting them die."


Earth is not under one government, imagine if a Chinese Mars settlement wants to secede they could make deals with the US or European countries for supplies. Only one major power on earth would need to support Mars independence.


The hard part is sufficient genetic and ecological diversity that both their population and biosphere (a biome inside the habitats is necessary not just for food production, but to keep the residents sane and healthy across generational timescales. No wildlife or green spaces, for an entire lifetime? I don't.. think the result is going to be healthy, sane, functioning humans) need to keep from imploding pathetically without constant influx from Earth. Without sufficient depth in biodiversity, they would be one embargo away from being hopelessly crippled, if not outright snuffed out as a viable colony.


There are ways around it, either by building underground or generating an artificial magnetic field to shield colonies/big parts of the planet. It's not outside of the realm of possibility.


Not for a loooooong time. The European colonies actually had water and breathable air.


Or, in general, European colonies were built for profit and were profitable from the start. Nobody even considers right now how a Mars colony could ever turn a profit.


Minerals mostly would be my guess right, not like theres much more on that big fucking red rock.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore_resources_on_Mars "many important elements have been detected. Magnesium, Aluminium, Titanium, Iron, and Chromium are relatively common in them. In addition, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, zinc, niobium, molybdenum, lanthanum, europium, tungsten, and gold have been found in trace amounts." "While nothing may be found on Mars that would justify the high cost of transport to Earth, the more ores that future colonists can obtain from Mars, the easier it would be to build colonies there." The gravity well of Earth means that bringing anything from space on to Earth surface would most likely be too costly to be economically worth it but the resources could be used on Mars itself, the rest of the solar system, and even in Earth orbit. Edit: to make my point regarding the Earth gravity well clearer. I'm not saying it costs a lot to go from space to Earth surface with resources but unless you use single-use rockets produced outside of Earth you would need to bring those rockets back from Earth surface into space. This is where the cost lies.


Mars is a terrible place to mine for valuable resources, it's still down a pretty big gravity well. And there's asteroids like 16 Psyche just floating about.


I also tell people who want to check out Mars that they should check out living in Antarctica for a bit. Antarctica is trying to kill you 24/7 and it's still way friendlier to deal with because there's air and water everywhere.


If I could live there, I would. I just don't have artic equipment mechanic, cargo handler, or geologist on my resume.


Lots of people go and do janitorial or cafeteria work just to say they've worked there. There's also openings for nurses, carpenters, mechanics, IT, fuel, drivers, bartenders, barbers, and a bunch more. McMurdo is a full up small city.


Any advice on where to find job listings?


[found it](https://www.usap.gov/jobsandopportunities/#overview) Looks like they largely hire through the subcontractors listed. Their sites are linked.


Geologist on resume here. I did live there, and there were colder days in Maine (where I came from) than deep on the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.


dont forget you also have "the thing" to deal with


The winter staff watch that at the beginning of each season.


Planets in general are bad places to mine for metals. Because of how the planets formed, most of the metal winds up in the mantle/core. think about how oil and water form layers with the less dense liquid on top. The early planets were basically molten which let denser material accumulate in the middle (this is why we have an iron core). The ores we have on earth came from mantle anomalies that forced deeper materials closer to the surface. Asteroids on the other hand basically contain the materials that made the planets, which means there's a lot more metals easily accessible on them.


Asteroids tend to also be largely homogenous. "Oh, that one is 95% nickel, that one over there is half and half iron and gold, and that one is 70% copper"


Easy, just launch 16 Psyche at Mars.


Don't forget Argent energy


>Minerals mostly would be my guess right, not like theres much more on that big fucking red rock. Yeah, unless they discovered an *unobtanium* deposit on Mars, the costs associated would make it unprofitable.


Getting any appreciable amount of mass out of a planetary gravity well is extraordinarily expensive. It's unlikely we'd use Mars for that purpose given there's no special abundance of any kind of resource we can't find on Earth. Martian resources would be immensely more valuable to people actually living on Mars. Where space mining is concerned near-Earth asteroids are a much better bet for this.


The best short term export for Mars is electronic IP that can be transmitted. Long term, it's actually an ideal location as a hub for water and resource transport around the system, as it's really easy to get raw materials down to the surface for refining or manufacturing, and orbital tethers would only need to be built of kevlar (Phobos would have to go or become something like a skyhook, though).


No one declares independence unless they actually believe they *can* be independent.


The first North American colony was founded ~1607. The American colonies declared independence 170 years later. I would think an independent mars would take at LEAST that long.


You'd probably enjoy the show "the expanse". This is a big theme in it.


Or the book 'Red Mars' which is the first of a trilogy


Not Mars, but I'd strongly recommend Heinlein's *The Moon is a Harsh Mistress*.


There is no such thing as a free lunch.


there ~~is~~ **aint** no such thing as a free lunch. TANSTAAFL


Stranger in a Strange Land is also excellent imho


Favorite book of all time from someone who has trouble reading


Great fun ideas. The audiobook can be listened to on yt.


The whole Mars trilogy (Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars) explores this topic beautifully. One of my favorite sci-fi series of all time.


I keep trying to get into it, but it just isn't for me. I can't stay focused when I pick it up. On paper, I should love it, but in reality it's dull


I thought it was fascinating but then it is more a book about politics and hard science than fun pew pew space stuff. But yeah the Expanse is a lot more easy to digest.


I see you didn't get to the third book with the horny space communists.


I actually stopped the first book right around when the Russians started doing it in a blimp, which is the weirdest thing I can think of you say, "I'm bored with this!"


May I interest you in some YA? “Red Rising” it’s one of my faves. If you take it for what it is, it’s pretty good.


Just as a warning, or maybe a point in favor, but only the first book (the titular “Red Rising”) really has YA undertones. The rest in the series, not really


First book was good. Second and third books are even better. But I couldn’t get into the second trilogy. I don’t know if it was a change of style, if I just wasn’t in the right frame of mind, or what. But I just couldn’t find myself caring about the new story lines after the time jump. I loved how each of the characters had their flaws that would lead them into trouble. But man, I just couldn’t find myself believing them in book 4 for some reason. Or at least not having any empathy for their new predicament.


I was the same. I started Iron Gold 3 times in the course of a year before I finally pushed on. Let me tell you, it is absolutely worth it. That one and Dark Age are masterpieces IMO, and just as good if not better than the original trilogy. Keep going, you might love it!


I'm with ya dude. Hell, I even enjoyed Asimov's *Foundation* series which is just six books of slow burn. But every single time I've tried to start with Red Mars I get extremely bored right at the beginning. The opening sequence does it no favors


See, I actually enjoyed the opening sequence. I enjoy the idea of "what's the psychology of being essentially a new actor in the first ever interplanetary politics?" I love the creativity of getting infrastructure and basic survival set up on a new planet. .... I'm bored silly at the interpersonal drama of who wants to bang who


The expanse, or more accurately the books it’s based on, definitely took inspiration from Red Mars.


"The Expanse" is also the name of the book series.


I saw on r/todayilearned recently that The Expanse was originally floated as an RPG by one of the authors, and the amount of material was so impressive the other author got them to do it as a book series. So it makes sense that Red Mars would provide inspiration for a game concept, that inspired a book series.


I read the Expanse series (all that are published + novellas) before Red Mars and the entire time during RM I was like "Wait a minute, I've seen this before!" Same with Reynolds *Pushing Ice* (another great early-days human space exploration story). I think that's my favorite genre of books & stories now.


The whole series written by Kim Stanley Robinson is fantastic. I just finished Green Mars. Ill take a little break, then on to Blue Mars.


Was going to say that. That trilogy goes into the most in depth treatment of this topic in sf, that I know of at least.


Thank you for recommending that, will definitely check it out


Oh boy OP, you're in for a treat. Watch the show. Then if you're a reader, read the books, then you get to watch the show again. Awww yisss.


You set the trap knowingly I will step on it lmao


Just as a forewarning, if you watch it, and this is a very common opinion. It starts off almost too slow. Keep with it though. Like 5 or 6 episodes in (halfway through season 1) and it picks up and just doesn't stop.


Completely agree. Season one is slow because it focuses a lot on world building. Then it seems to take off with no slowness after that season. And I love season one. In fact I have a greater appreciation for it after watching future seasons and coming back. I have watched and discussed with friends who had issues with season one. For me season 1 episode 4 sealed the deal on I'm watching this show religiously. You may see why...


Then re-watch the show for extra juiciness


I’ve watched the show through three times from season 1 to season 5. I’d deliberately held back from reading the books until season 6 had aired but damn it, I couldn’t hold out. I’m currently on book 4 and see no hope of me having any of the series left to read before season 6 airs… OP, you’ll love both the books and tv show!


The last book in the series comes out in November. You picked a perfect time to start reading the books.


I'm about halfway through a reread of book 8 in anticipation for 9. I haven't been this excited for a book in a long time. Feels good!


Oh man I was not ready for this show to be as good as it is, the production value was high even before Amazon took over. I’m also naming my next dog Amos, because well, Amos.


This is exactly what I'm doing now, almost finished the first book while rewatching the show. It's glorious


I'm now at step 2 of that process, loving it


Doors and corners, kid. They’ll eat you up.


Hit me harder than it should have.


It's my favourite TV series ever. It's just so amazingly well put together and really feels like it *could* happen. And as the others have mentioned the attention to detail in how physics would actually work is second to none.


I’m surprised you didn’t know about the show before this post


Truly. I saw the title and thought, "Oh, someone's been reading too much James Corey, this should be good..." *click*


I really didn't!


It’s indeed a fantastic show. Word of advice, the first season is very slow. Many people, myself included, give up after the first few episodes. Stick with it and you will be rewarded with one of the best sci fi shows ever made.


I feel like Season One is more "space detective" than sci-fi in a lot of ways. Although I f'n love Anderson's accent and I miss seeing him in later episodes.


I honestly wish I was in your shoes right now where I hadn’t seen the expanse. What a treat you’re in for!


Best fucking show ever. Prepare to get addicted. Stick it out a couple episodes. Lots to learn and you get thrown right in


> Stick it out a couple episodes. *Wassa mater wewala? Say canna hanlit?*


I was like that first time around. Stuck it out for a coupe of episodes but it wasn’t grabbing me, so I ditched it for about a year. Decided to go back and try again, but this time put my phone away so I wasn’t constantly distracted and letting myself concentrate I picked up on all the intricacies of the plot and got hooked. I ended up blazing through both seasons (that were available at the time).


Plus the Mars series by Kim Stanley Robinson. And the Babylon 5 TV show.


as cool as the Expanse is, its set in a time after Mars has gained independance. The Mars trilogy is great because it is the story OF Martian independance


True, the Expanse takes place long after Mars independence and nation-building, when Mars is already a major player in interplanetary *helio-politics*. But when it comes to the belt it is still in a sort of colonial state.


Well, you just convinced me. I needed something new to read after finishing the first SEVENTEEN BOOKS of the Dresden series


Top 3 series for me. Also very believable that’s how it will pan out due to human nature.


I love The Expanse. For me, it’s by far the one of the best science fiction tv shows of all time. They use real science to achieve a more plausible future. Tip: I do recommend using English subtitles as some accents and slang can be thick.


Wot u mean no understand words belta loda?


It took time to get used to, bossmang.


Spoken like a true non-belter 🤔


They either a squat, a duster, or a welwalla


fo sho beratna mi. lang belta im dura fo da inyalowda. r/langbelta


mars breaking away from earth is a common theme in other series too, babylon5 also had it.


Absolutely came here to at the same. The Expanse is easily the most realistic and likely scenario for the future in our system. Big plus, the physics are extremely realistic (the science in general really).


Except for sound in space, which so far AFAIK only Firefly got right and didn't have (though by no means have I seen every science fiction show).


They did say "we know about the sound in space thing but that makes those scenes very unwatchable."


I feel like they also compressed time a lot for the show as well. Which is for the better.


Yup, the books are much more realistic. When the Roci is >!transiting to other systems through the ring gates it can take months if they are starting at one of the inner planets!<


It's also the plot of like half the Gundam animes


Pretty much the entire UC timeline.


Gundam if your into anime explores this as well in one of their series


Great show! One of the best I've seen so far. Getting all the books now


Or the anime "Aldnoah.zero"


I think it is all depend on how the colony support itself. If it can't self support and rely heavy on earth, then no.


True. Even the colonies on Earth took awhile to rebel.


But there's also no colonies left, eventually they all broke away eventually, although there are "territories". For example the UK has a bunch of territories that used to be part of the British empire, but are now somewhat independent to one degree or another, while all still relying on the UK for things like military protection or foreign relations. There's some that are just scientific outposts, do Mars might end up being like that, at least initially. On the other hand the reason countries had colonies in the first place was mostly to extract resources, and there's no natural resources on Mars that are worth returning to Earth. Mars is just too deep of a gravity well to make it profitable to extract bulk resources. So, maybe Mars will be strategically important? Like a small island in the Pacific that's a good place to have an air strip? Once the infrastructure is in place to make fuel and oxygen on Mars, that might be valuable since it'll be in a shallower gravity well than Earth, and further out in the solar system, so it might be a good spot to explore/mine the asteroid belt from? But long term, I can't see how Earth could control Mars. Once it can be self sufficient, the little living on Mars are going to want to be self governing, and it'll be really hard to enforce control from 100 million miles away.


At first it would act like Antartica. If there is viability on the planet / base it will start to work up mote like a city state. Depending on the resource cost vs reward we could see colonialism.


Are there people who regularly give birth in Antartica? I feel like most scientists just go there for a few months, then just come back (correct me if I'm wrong). Mars would be a whole new beast. It might be just a one way trip for a lot of people, especially once we establish a rudimentary base there. Which would mean there would be kids born in Mars who would have _no_ idea about things like 1g gravity or air that's not contained. When those kids become adults, they may feel like they should be considered independent from Earth


It would entirely depend on what Mars is in relation to earth. Like your analogy to Antarctica, even if you send permanent residents to Antarctica, it would never becomes its own country because it relies so heavily on sponsors to maintain any semblance of survivability. If Mars becomes a mining/industry colony, it may be self sufficient due to their exports like a lot of remote mining towns but it can quickly become a ghost town like so many cases on earth if/when the resources run out or a catastrophe happens. A even if we are able to grow and produce everything you need to live on Mars itself, another test would be how easy is it to repair damages to food/water sources, like we see in early colonies in North America, especially in the cold north. So I don't think an independent Mars will be as simple as having babies there.


Not regularly no. According to Wikipedia there have only been about 11 births on Antarctica. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization\_of\_Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Antarctica)


It doesn't really matter what any Martians feel when Mars is only being operated as a research station they won't be able to do shit about it. Or not for very long at least. Also instead of juggling 15-ish years of dead weight on the resource budget having children would simply not be permitted [with](https://www.plannedparenthood.org/planned-parenthood-columbia-willamette/patient-resources/long-acting-reversible-contraceptives-larcs) countermeasures [in place](https://utswmed.org/medblog/pill-guys-male-birth-control-option-passes-safety-tests/). And any exceptions will be evacuated well before adulthood. If we can't manage that last one then its one more reason Mars will most likely never be colonized at all.


i havent seen this yet but this is the plot for like half of all the different Gundam series. its weird that its actually a political drama because we are all watching for the cool robots fight


I scrolled too far in the comments to find this. Iron Blooded Orphans (its on netflix) is pretty big on this concept.


Oh there's robots too? I'm in


Finally found someone that mentioned Gundam! It's a bit difficult to start with the series, as each tells a certain story. You can find a bit more guidance [here](https://kotaku.com/the-gundam-multiverse-is-huge-and-confusing-and-were-h-5920413) and another suggestion [here](https://www.polygon.com/streaming/22533817/mobile-suit-gundam-movies-compliations-netflix). I recommend not to fully disregard some series if someone tells you they're bad, especially if they are your first gundam ones, as they might fit very well with you. I personally loved 00, but maybe Gundam Age could be a better fit for you to start, along Iron-Blooded Orphans, which is more recent. Gundam Age deals with three different generations involved into an ongoing war.


Gundam is such an underrated series here in the west. It’s probably the best piece of Japanese science fiction ever created


Once the belt gets going the Mars colony will be less dependent on earth, but the BELT WILL RISE BELTA LOWDA


Beltalowda du wang wit! Inyalowda nakangepensa!


only if self sustainability becomes a reality


Robert Heinlein's *The Moon is a Harsh Mistress* tackles this question (but for the Moon instead of Mars). It's a penal colony that ultimately rebels against Earth. Highly recommend.


There's no such thing as a free lunch.


*there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. TANSTAAFL


Thank you for recommending, will check it out


It's awesome. Good sci-fi and as usual Heinlein explorer different extreme ways of human governance. Starship Stroopers explored a militaristic totalitarian meritocracy, this one explores a anarchic libertarian society.


I thought Starship Troopers was a democracy, but requires service to be eligible to vote. Also add to the list Stranger in a Strange Land which explores a sort of hippie socialist commune type of living.


They do have a democratic process but you have to serve for it, I may be wrong interpreting that as a meritocracy of sorts. Ah yes, Stranger in a Strange Land is awesome with its space hippie sex cult socialist thing.


Along with Moon check out the Mars trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. Its a very scientific story of what colonising Mars might actually look like it. Some people find it quite dry but it's a fascinating read.








Read The Mars Trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. He pretty much lays out how martian colonization is gonna go. In super dense detail.


Silly Martians couldn't even keep a space elevator working for long.


Thanks for your recommendation, would gladly check it out


It's a tough trilogy. I'd classify it as technical sci-fi. There are a lot of characters and a lot of different plot lines. But it's super well written and worth the slog if you can get through it. Robert Heinlein wrote a book called the moon is a harsh mistress about conflict between a moon colony and earth that is also super interesting.


It's very involved but I got through all 3 in what felt like no time at all. It was like reading the actual future, not just sci-fi.


Oh yeah I almost forgot about Project Artemis. Yes I think if there ever was an interplanetary war, it's much more likely to be between Earth and the Moon rather then Mars or Venus. Some Avatar shit except humans on moon would probably have a lot more on their arsenal then bows and arrows.


Thing about the moon is they can just hurl massive boulders at earth, cus gravity. Which is wild to think about.


And the Spacnoids will rise and claw their independence away from the Earth Federation, sieg Zeon brother.


Sieg Zeon


Let's keep Australia out of it this time.


Well if the dirty Earth Federation hadn't interfered in operation British Australia would have been fine.


And the newtypes will arise as the future of humanity


It depends on how we define the word “colony”. I suspect at first it’ll be less like “full cities away from Earth” and more like a tour of duty by soldiers in a war zone. No spouse, no kids, certainly no pets. One goes to Mars, does X job for Y period of time for Z money, then leaves for Earth. Space travel, medical tech and space habitats would need to be a LOT safer before you’d have full families living on Mars. By that point , it might be *Earth* that cuts the political cord first. Why? Assuming representative government is still a thing in the future, who wants to campaign to a planet six+ months away? Running for office is already hideously expensive. Holding speeches on Mars will definitely blow the marketing budget. Earth politicians might decide its better to let the Red Planet do their own thing then stress Terran tax revenues supporting a place so far away


There was a documentary about this called "The Expanse"


There won't be human colonies on Mars for a very long time. Because building self-sustaining independent colonies off-earth is far, far harder than most people realise it is. The ISS is supported by thousands of ground-based engineers constantly improvising solutions to potential show-stopper problems. It's at the end of relatively short supply link. Neither will be true of Mars or Moon bases. The most likely outcome of both is failure for at least the first couple of attempts - not just because building stable ecologies out of limited resources is super hard and barely researched, but also because of psychological pressures and politics, which have been researched even less. And which are hardly solved problems on Earth, never mind in a much more hostile environment. Peopl need to understand that novels and TV shows are *not real*. And they are neither real science nor real engineering. They do not give any practical insights into how to deal with some very difficult problems which are going to have to be solved before a nominal Mars colony can survive for more than a year or two, never mind grow to the size where it could consider independence.


Yeah. There would need to be unfathomable advances in many technologies before we are even remotely capable of colonizing Mars. And I don’t think there are nearly enough people interested in making on happen considering the circumstances here on Earth.


If you haven't already. Read the Expanse. Or watch it, it's on amazon.


Well, Columbus sailed the ocean blue in 1492, and Independence day was in 1776….. So I’m going to say it will happen 284 years after we get there for that to happen


and that’s considering they were only an ocean apart and the land they discovered was fertile, inhabited land with plenty of resources. on the other hand, mars is a whole ass ~130 million miles, and all we got there is rust and some ice


Well Mars has plenty of resources, no people though and you ain't gonna be fertile after a long stay.


Once Mars becomes self sufficient then they’d achieve independence like most modern countries. They’d vote for it. Seems to be some weird fetish from Americans in here that Mars would raise arms for independence.


Earth: "You can't be independent! Im gonna come over there and stop you!" *Sits in rocket angrily holding musket for two years*


A rocket that's an easily punctureable tin can on a predictable trajectory, no less.


Maintaining a political body requires the ability to project power and influence, and it's really hard to do that across the vast gulf of space. You can *threaten* each other, perhaps, but if the US Martian colony decides to stop sending money to the US it'd be really hard and really expensive to send troops and spaceships over to do anything about it. I also like to imagine that this wouldn't even *be* a military issue to begin with, sort of like how Canada and other parts of the British Empire broke away peacefully. Imperialism of the sort that made the British Empire and the American Revolution and all that jazz isn't really popular anymore, and while being a multiplanetary country is a cool flex I like to hope that if Mars *really* wants independence we'd just give it to them after a referendum or something. There's a certain blurred line, though, between a part of your country with high local autonomy (as a Mars colony would inherently have to be) and an allied but distant country (as a Mars country would similarly be). If Mars is already more or less governing itself because 90% of governance just can't be done off-planet, it's already independent in all but name.


Realistically? They'd be so dependent on Earth for periodic supplies that I don't see how they could declare themselves fully independent. Maybe after a few thousand years of colonization.