So armenia and azerbaijan have already started fighting, now kyrgyztan and tajikistan? Does this essentially mean the CSTO is over? I'm far from an expert but are these "usual" clashes in the region or is it sign of a free for all soon?


Well Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a state of readiness for war since their first battles ended around 1994. They also had a serious outbreak of violence in Sept 2020 where Armenia lost land to Azerbaijan. So the fact they’re fighting again isn’t a shock but the fact that the Russians lost all influence on the other former Soviet states, and ignoring Armenia, is telling.


To be fair, whoever drew the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan seemingly designed it to specifically cause ethic conflicts between the two groups.


You won't be a fan of the [map of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan's borders](https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/thediplomat_2015-07-02_13-02-04-790x591.jpg) them... (NSFL)


and pay attention to the location of that big lake/reservoir. It's 1 of the reasons for all the fighting.


Water war


WTF, those borders are designed for endless war and strife.


Those borders were originally intended as regional borders, not international ones, so it was expected that people could travel freely between them and it wouldn't cause many problems.


Sure but the USSR was known for setting up its regions in order to create infighting. As a method to prevent any kind of unification against the government.


Precisely so. I believe someone once described these borders as the Soviets setting up booby traps to prevent any sort of independent movements/nations as being able to rise up in the world. Some of these booby traps aren't so much the borders themselves, as population transfers that resulted in, for example, 24% of the population of EU member Estonia being Russian. But from Artsakh to the Cosmodrome to Transnistria to Nakhchivan to the Black Sea Fleet to Ossetia to the Swiss-cheese borders of Central Asia, the Soviets clearly laid the path for the conflicts and problems that we still see today.


Kazakhstans borders look pretty good comparitively, heard good things about their potassium too


Pretty much the same borders they had 400 years ago with the Kazakh Khanate. But don't tell that to a Russian. Apparently they created the idea of Kazakhstan and discovered the New World too


I hear Kazakhstan is a glorious country but it has problems too: economic, social, and Jew


What's their transport situation like?


Throw transport down the well


So my country can be free.


The problem is transport


Yes, Stalin purposefully reshaped them to keep those republics in check.


Divide and conquer. If you keep people fighting amongst themselves, they'll always be too weak to rebel against you. Soviet thinking (and old-school colonial strategy) at play here.


The border gore! This will trigger any HOI4 player


Or get them excited about encirclements.


The borders of three nations look even wilder in Google Earth. All occupy the Fergana Valley and there is no natural frontiers - national boundaries just pass through irrigated farms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fergana_Valley?


It’s even worse than it looks. That eastern part of Uzbekistan looks connected to the rest of the country, but it’s actually separated by a mountain range. To actually get to those eastern cities from western Uzbekistan requires crossing Tajikistan.


Historically, maybe. But there is both a paved road and (as of ~5 years ago), a new rail line connecting them without going through another country.


Lol, that’s much worse than the partition I knew growing up, India Pakistan, at least in terms of geography.


Tbf, until recently the Indian/Bangladesh border had parts that were somehow worse than that, including parts of India, inside parts of Bangladesh, inside parts of India, and vice versa.


I’m going to say it was the soviets but to your point, pogroms were happening years before the USSR formally dissolved.


I feel like the Ethnonationalism narrative portrayed after WWII that has since persisted made sense at the time to avoid conflict in the short term but ultimately just set up issues like this to begin with


Agree….Part of the reason for collapse of the Soviet Union was rooted in ethnonationalism. Glasnost and perestroika unleashed suppressed religious and ethnic sentiments. While the Soviet economy was in a dire state of collapse, the sudden ability to discuss such feeling en masse caused the varying ethnicities of the USSR to ask why they should continue to be part of the union. Political lines rarely equal ethnic lines. Armenians were a sizable population percentage in Baku prior to the pogroms. Now the numbers of Armenians are nearly zero, mostly old people who are married to Azeris and keep their ethnic background a secret.


Ethnonationalism in general is a recipe for war and genocide.


from just a "peace at all costs" perspective, one has to wonder if another 50 years would have quenched that energy. However, I'll assume there are numerous historical instances folks can share where even 100 years is insufficient to calm ethnic regional disputes.


It’s difficult to demarcate Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s borders because you have villages interspersed between each other that are dominated by either ethnicities. It could be done better, yes, but to be truly perfect it would require a very messy border (similar to the India-Bangladesh border) which has its own issues. It’s hard to reconcile the distribution of where each ethnic group is dominant while also taking into account geography


Hmmm what about peaceful coexistence of both ethnicities within each other's borders with mutual respect of culture and common history?


Yeaaaaah, too tall an order given the recent history of the area, esp given that area is basically the Balkans on steroids.


As of now, that wouldn't work. The moment Karabakh would return to Azerbaijan, a genocide would happen, and there's stuff like [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hajibala_Abutalybov), [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov) or [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whole_Azerbaijan). >In 2005, Abutalybov told a visiting German delegation from Bavaria concerning Armenians and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: “Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us.”


Yeah uh, I think Joseph Stalin is too blame for that one


Stalin. He personally drew some lines. No joke


"He can't even draw straight" - Stalin's son


It was in fact intentional, because the Soviets drew the borders.


Soviet policy on non-Russian ethnicity in a nutshell.


Would you say that in a way russia kept peace between the former soviet states? And if yes, hoe did the war against Ukraine change that?


Actually, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan predates them being swallowed up by the Russian Empire. I just saw several Youtube videos about it, so I may be wrong, but it seems it’s been an issue for about 200 years.


It is interesting that in the last conflict the Azeris crushed Armenian forces with drones but then as soon as the drones stopped constant patrols the fighting came right back. Drones are very powerful, but only if you keep swarms of them in the air at all times which can be a strain.


Russia (for better or worse) was a stabilizing force in the region prior to their invasion of Ukraine. These smaller central Asian countries might've had some problems with their neighbors, but it's hard to do anything about it when big strong Daddy Russia orders you to play nice. But now everyone sees Russia's weakness. So they're seizing the opportunity to hash things out violently which they couldn't do before.


It's sad and interesting that at the end of all social norms, politics, and diplomacy, we all accept that the final decider is killing each other until someone gives up. Even if one side doesn't accept it, they will have to kill or be killed, so it still works. I suppose that will always be the final decider.


War is, and always has been, a continuation of negotiations. Only in a different way. As our weapons become more efficient however it's been theorized that war would eventually cease to be used anymore. The machine gun didn't do it, but the fission bomb got pretty close. Maybe someday there will come a weapon so destructive and wide spread that no one would dare go to war ever again.


Yep. Georgia trying to vote for a war to recover their territory from Russia is another symptom of Russia's weakness.


Other way, pro-Russian government is trying to prove there is no will for war with Russia among the people... it would be interesting if the vote says different, but the result is probably decided by the leaders long before the vote.


I don't see the point in going through the trouble to make such a statement. Why go so far? Who are they trying to appease? Russia? Why?


They are justifying the fact that they are pro Russia by saying “see the people clearly don’t want war”.


A vote of 30-40% for war would still be politically cataclysmic would it not?


If they want South Ossetia back, I can't fully blame them.


Holy shit doesn't that conclusively prove that Russia has NOT been holding back in Ukraine and they really ARE that weak??


I'm not exactly expecting a show of force from Russia elsewhere to prove that notion wrong.


Anyone who's been looking at what Russia has thrown at Ukraine's meat grinder so far could tell Russia wasn't holding back. The only remaining option for them now is full mobilization, and Putin can't do that without committing political suicide. Which, to an authoritarian, well... remove the "Political" from that last bit.


Even though the US spent trillions in the middle east, they could have easily intervened in a conflict this size within days without impacting operations in Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia is pulling personnel and equipment from around their sphere of influence to keep the Ukrainian front from collapsing.


Really confused by this narrative because these countries have been having on/off border clashes for years that lead to deaths, shellings, then a ceasefire. I feel like people are just projecting what they know about Ukraine onto this conflict as if it's a new thing.


The occasional skirmish is normal for the region. This is more than that, with land already changing hands. Then you have Azerbaijan and Armenia starting up again so soon after their last conflict, and Georgia considering moving in on South Ossetia... All of this happening right as Russia is tied down in Ukraine seems like more than coincidence.


Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is definitely not usual. Normally it would be some other action like closing the border or something. However Stalin redefined the bordera of the then Soviet republics in such way that would create problems. He purposefully mixed ethnicities. For example Uzbekistan has the Tajik cities of Bukhara ans Samarkand as well as the more Kazakh Karapalkastan. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have parts of the Uzbek Ferghana valley.


Probably free for all soon. There’s 6 former Soviet state’s currently locked up in land conflicts. 6 out of 15. That’s not good. And Russia is usually like the peace broker of that area. But with their military taking heavy loses in Ukraine. Armenia and Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Russia and Ukraine It’s created a mess that’ll probably just continue to grow. As countries realize Russia won’t be there to protect them or help them if another country comes nocking


Well, I can tell you why Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are in war. It all started when Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China signed an agreement to build a railroad to West, thus avoiding Russian soil. Putin did not like that and had influence on Rahmon to attack borders of Kyrgyzstan as a warning sign. Since then it’s been happening to destabilize the situation in Central Asia, also recent attacks coincided with Russian forces losing badly in Ukraine. Also, diversion tactic by Putin, as news will talk about the new conflict.


Everyone realized Russia is a paper tiger. Their stabilizing influence on the region is over.




Was all the former Soviet states just waiting to pop off until Russia showed a sign of weakness or wth is going on?


I don’t know that it’s so much a sign of weakness, but that Russia is obviously preoccupied with its western front right now and so their ability to police the ex-Soviet block countries is diminished. So those countries see the opportunity to gain ground without much interference.


Pretty much yeah. There have been severe ethnic tensions between basically all of the Balkans, Caucasus, and Central Asian countries for centuries. Loads of wars fought, blood feuds and atrocities back and forth, and anyone who tried to intervene got dragged into an endless quagmire. A Serbian terrorist shooting an Austrian Archduke in Bosnia was the spark that started WWI, as the most dramatic example. Then the USSR absorbed all of them as either Soviet states or communist satellite countries, and brutally repressed them into the dirt. After the USSR collapsed, Russia was still able to hold things together and maintain an uneasy peace, but now that Russia’s strength has been shown to actually be nonexistent with the disaster in Ukraine (and Russia’s refusal to help Armenia against Azerbaijan), all the old ethnic rivalries and border disputes are flaring up again.


In case of Georgia, Russia is one who instigated the whole conflict since the beginning, because before of that, we lived peaceful next to each other, intermarried, fought wars against invaders and etc. Then Soviets came fucked up whole region so we wouldn'tdare anything. Soviets were notorious of that in other regions too.


r/badhistory The Balkans were never once part of the USSR/Warsaw Pact. Commie it may have been, but Yugoslavia was independent.


Yup. And even after that, their relationship was very strained to say the least. Tito hated the Soviets and the Soviets hated him.




Wasn't it about Bosnias ethnic serb Republic threatening to secede from Bosnia?


I don’t see how the Balkans are relevant here.


Yeah, that region is mired with ethnic wars. Russia had a NATO like defensive back there [CSTO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization). Armenia is in it and got attacked and the other countries in CSTO aren't doing squat yet. See Serb vs Korsovo, Czech, Yugoslavia, etc... Turkey was Ottoman empire so they have beef with Russia through out history. Turkey is right now supporting Azerjibayan cause they're ethnically closer to them. Plus Turkey hates Armenians enough to genocide them, hell I had a coworker who is Turkish that vehemently denied Armenian genocide ever happen. Heck Turkey hates Kurds too. All ethnics hating. Armenia was backed by Russia but Russia was playing both sides cause they were the weapon seller for both sides. Georgia had a land annex by Russia but it was easy because there is an ethnic group there that is different from Georgian. They don't want to be a colony of Russia but they wants to break away a be their own there. Yeah.. anyway, it's all shit. Georgia wants their shit back. Moldova wants their shit back too.


Czech? Why Czechs?


He probably meant Chechnya


Tony told he was an interior decorator in Czechia.


His house looked like shit


Alright, who wants to fight us Mongolians? We be itching for a fight, it has been too long


Let's gooooo Mongol empire 2.0


It's time to ride again, boys!


Can y’all take over Russia and fix that place /s


China is on it


I doubt China would appreciate foreign armies moving through Xinjiang.


That’s what they said last time…


Technically you guys already fighting Tajiks. They call us "Mongols" as a derogatory term. They say all this land (all of Kyrgyzstan) is theirs and we should go back to Siberia and Mongolia.))) We call them "Taziks" (Basin)


The second wave of post-soviet wars have begun.


Begun, the second wave of post-soviet wars have....


Well, this is all going down hill fast. First Armenia vs Azerbaijan now Kyrgyzstan vs Tajikistan with Russia’s problems in Ukraine all the former soviet republics are disintegrating.


When the cat's outta town, the mice get down.


Easy, Stans. Easy


If you relax a little, I'm glad I inspire you but Stan Why are you so mad? Try to understand, that I do want you as a fan I just don't want you to do some crazy shit


Well come to think of it, it was you.




Tea’s gone cold I’m wondering why I got out of the USSR at all…


Trurcks are driving by my window, and I can't see at all ...


And even if I could they'd all be dead But your flag on my wall


Why can't they just listen to Kpop like all the other Stans?


They should Focus More on development than war


Pax-russica is falling apart


When does the internal conflicts inside Russia start?


Already has buddy


I just got back from a trip to Kyrgyzstan a few weeks ago. It’s a stunning country with very friendly and hospitable people. We camped and took a bunch of dirt roads through the mountain peaks. We were not near the conflict zone but I am sad to hear that the conflicts have started up again.


I was in Tajikistan back in the early 2000’s and it’s a terribly poor, but beautiful country! We were with the State Dept. doing humanitarian aid work at the local hospitals and you would not believe the poor conditions that these hospitals had to endure! My time their was one of the most fulfilling and heartbreaking of my life!


Kyrgyzstan is almost as poor as as Tajikistan. Both are extremely beautiful countries but besides poorly managed agriculture and tourism they have nothing.


Kyrgyzstan has huge gold deposits.


and basically no government


Please, elaborate further?


the current president became one after a revolution in 2019 and the current administration is very keen on doing the absolute least they can just to not get ousted. this in turn causes many basic services to be performed by the people rather than the government (from anecdotal reports, majority of evacuation on the Tajik border has been done by private citizens who helped their neighbours)


Thanks, that's interesting


And some of the largest walnut forests in Asia


Can I pay one price for a basket I fill myself?


That stuff doesn't get to the people


Looks like the power vacuum is pretty obvious


China has already begun to fill the void. It will be interesting to see how Putin takes that. He absolutely hates the feeling of playing second fiddle to someone else, but he very little choice right now. That can change after the Ukrainian war is over though.


Honest question. What does the suffix, "stan" translate to in English?


Basically “land of”




Fun fact. Poland is Persian is referred to as Lahistan. India is Hindustan. Armenia is Armenistan. Georgia is Gorjistan. Saudi Arabia is Arabistan. Edit: Also, England is Engelistan. Hungary is Majarestan. Bulgary is Bulgharestan. Mongolia is Mogholestan. Serbia is Serbestan. I think that's about it.


> Armenia is Armenistan Considering Armenia calls itself *Hayastan* it would be something like that.


Is USA called Americastan?






God damnit I wanna live In that country


I've got good news and bad news.


My dad brought me along for a business trip to Hamburg, Germany when I was little and boy was I disappointed. The whole plane ride there I was imagining a city with hamburger stands and restaurants everywhere.


"Ramirez! Defend Burger Town!"


In Iran America is called "Equinsu Ocha."


Is there an Ameristan?




It means roughly land of or place of , so Afganistan would be the land of the Afghans.


"-land", in the same way we have England (land of the Angles), Finland (land of the Finns) and Thailand (land of the Thais).


"Land", essentially. It's cognate with English "stand" and "stead", e.g. in the word "homestead". The prefixes are ethnicities, so the countries' names mean like "Land of the Tajiks" and "Land of the Kyrgyz".


Land or country I believe


“Land of”


Land of


So, it seems that the ceasefire lasted a few hours. That's not good because the border conflict has been going on for a while and the last thing it needs is momentum to build up.


Wasn’t the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia?


Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a ceasefire yesterday which is still being maintained unless something changed yesterday night. Tajikistan and Krygyzstan agreed to a ceasefire yesterday and it was broken after a few hours. Edit: Just to clarify, there are two different border conflicts going on.


As Russia gets weaker (at least seen weaker), these nations will fight more regularly. Say it'll just end up like Afghanistan/Pakistan


Russia lost a major part of their military forces, and a lot of their budget from oil sale. They are *objectively* weaker than a year ago.




there has not ever been a time where humans havent been at war. weve been lucky there hasnt been a major xonflict for this long, which i thi k is unprecedented. looks like thats about to change.


There has to been a period of global peace. Like that time when 95% of humans were extinct for example.


Yeah, but that 5% was metal as fuck and went to war with waves and shit.


"fuck you whale!! and fuck you dolphin!!"


You don't want *another* another another another another war? Aw shucks!


Well yeah after the nuclear war.


At the GAY BAR




This is what happens when a regional power starts to collapse, the semi vassal states go back to their centuries old grudges someone will fill the void Russia is leaving in Central Asia unfortunately it will probably be Iran or China.


>unfortunately You mean fortunately. If noone fills it it means potentially millions dead in these wars.


World tension has increased enough that the justify war button is no longer greyed out..


Two things are in play here. First, Russia was a stabilizing force in the region. For better or worse, no one started conflicts with them because of mural defence treaties and CSTO. now they see that Russia is not as strong as they thought, Azerbaijan has restarted the war with Armenia, Russia pretty much stated they will not help Armenia (CSTO article 4, equivalent to NATO article 5 has been invoked by Armenia), so these -stans know Russia won't come and stop the fighting. 2nd is that none of these countries share a land border with Russia.


I am going to be that dick, but Azerbaijan shares a land boarder with Russia.


There’s nothing dickish about correcting factually incorrect statements.


Well, I can tell you why Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are in war. It all started when Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and China signed an agreement to build a railroad to West, thus avoiding Russian soil. Putin did not like that and had influence on Rahmon to attack borders of Kyrgyzstan as a warning sign. Since then it’s been happening to destabilize the situation in Central Asia, also recent attacks coincided with Russian forces losing badly in Ukraine. Also, diversion tactic by Putin, as news will talk about the new conflict.


Yeah, I would take that with a large grain of salt. Former Soviet countries have been building infrastructure that avoids Russia for decades, from oil pipelines to gas pipelines, and these do infact directly affect Russian profits. I do believe that one reason why Azerbaijan is willing to attack Armenia now is gas. They have a pipeline to Europe, they just signed agreements to deliver more gas, and Europe needs it, so I think they thought Europe will ignore that war and atrocities.


Europe also wants Turkiye to admit Finland and Sweden into NATO. They may not want to step on their toes with regards to Azerbaijan.


Ex-soviet republics have noticed the cat is away, time to come out and play.


Everyone acting real stupid all of a sudden


May the best Stan win.


Stan Wars


Russia-Ukraine, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan, India-China, China-Taiwan. Asia is the new Middle East for wars


Russia-Ukraine is wholly on the European Continent though. At least the part that’s actually in conflict.


the last two aren't at war, the first isn't in Asia ???


Commenter is brain dead regarded


The Middle East *is* in Asia, most Westerners assume that "Asia" just means "East Asia".


“You know, I am something of an Asian myself”


> India-China, China-Taiwan won't happen. machuria, siberia, and central asia are up for grabs. if china has more than one brain cell, they will prioritize that for the next decade than start some insanely stupid invasion of taiwan, or conflict with india. (china is better off letting pakistan fuck with india and then invading kashmir if the opportunity comes up).


idk how to tell you this but the middle east ain't a continent and most of what you consider it to be is in asia


I reckon these outbreaks are occurring now as the great 'peacekeeper' Russia severely weakened. A free for all. Local disputes able to reignited and no strong arm tactics from the local power in the region. Be interesting to see if Georgia trys to take back some territory from the weakened Russia.


One story I would like to see covered more is how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the other former Soviet republics, i.e., Uzbekistan, Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan, Azerbijan...


This is just the beginning of the end for the Russian Federation and the post-soviet CSTO.


Who will turkmenistan back?


Turkmenistan is isolationist, they are North Korea if North Korea had no enemies bordering them.


just with a way funnier president . the song with his grandson is still stuck in my head.


More importantly what about Uzbekistan


They’re staunchly neutral and isolationist


Both these countries have exclaves within each other, which was by design. When the soviets created these countries they were very intentional in large groups of Tajiks living in Kyrgyzstan and visa versa. Then, when the countries had conflict the russians could step in to mediate.


I don't understand where this is all coming from these countries and Armenia all at war within the last week. I know Armenia has had beef with azberja whatever but now full mobilization? Only thing I can think off is Russia and maybe China spurred this. Feel like a world war is weeks or months away.


Russia has it's hands full with Ukraine. The old saying applies: "while the cat’s away, the mice will play".


Russia refused to protect Armenia after they had evoked what is essentially article 5 in the CSTO, so everyone in Russia's backyard is beginning to realize that Russia has no means to enforce peace in the region.


Getting the Roman Empire experience. Except instead an emperor dying and a 100000 dudes declaring themselves emperor, they get every satellite states declaring war on each other.


POV you lowered crown authority allowing vassal conflict and your vassals are all killing each other now


POV, your 3rd aunt presses a claim on the 7 year old you inherited as, your dukes are ambitious and you're 7 ducats short of hiring those 3000 mercenaries that would swing the balance of power in your favor.


When your character dies in CK3


Boulevard of broken soviet dreams


I despise Putin's Russia, but this is why it's actually good to have a clear superpower or two around. Pax Romana. Pax Americana. You don't want a power vacuum, really. Like when they take out the biggest drug dealer and it turns into a turf war.


Oh shiete. This means the Ga'ould know the Asgard's can't enforce the peace anymore.


These divisions have existed for centuries, often based on tribal and ethnic lines. Stalin controlled these divisions by ruling with an iron fist (Stalin in fact means "man of steel") . Yes he was murderous and brutal but his absolute control kept these ethnic tensions largely in check. This continued to a large degree within the USSR, and even to a lesser degree even under Putin. Now that Putin is both weakened and distracted, these ancient tensions are coming to the fore once again.


Armenia and Azerbaijan literally had a war 2 years ago in which thousands of people died, i'm not sure why them being on war readyness is a surprise to you


Russian soft power was keeping the peace in these areas. They are no longer afraid of Russian military intervention after the debacle that has been Ukraine. The failure of the Russian military in Ukraine is just the tip of the iceberg. The last time Russia was embarrassed this badly in a war it created unrest that contributed to the 1917 revolution


> Russian soft power If Russia's military being proven weak was the difference, wasn't it by definition Russian hard power, not Russian soft power?


1980s in Afghanistan.


1990’s Chechnya


>Feel like a world war is weeks or months away. Its not. What you're seeing is the chaos that follows the end of an external security guarantor. Russia has been humiliated in Ukraine, they've been shown to be completely ineffective at projecting power against a strategically essential region right on their doorstep. Now everybody who has beef with their various client states is taking this as a sign that they can move in and take what they want without fear that Russia will come riding over the hill. Tajikistan wants to expand its control over the Fergana valley and southern Kyrgyzstan. Russia is Kyrgyzstan's largest trading partner, and Tajikistan is one of the only former Soviet republics to have opted out of the Eurasian Union. You should, if anything, expect the Uzbeks to get involved soon, as they also have desires for more of the Fergana Valley, and a large Uzbek minority resides in the region. Armenia is in a similar boat. They're only militarily relevant because they're allied with the Russians. They've fought multiple division level conflicts with Azerbaijan to reclaim various exclaves and most importantly the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Without Russia, Azerbaijan could probably reduce Armenia to a non-player militarily. They also have the Turks on their side and Turkey would love nothing more than to make Armenia a quasi-puppet state so they can control oil supplies out of Baku, and use Azerbaijan as a launch point to spread its influence over Central Asia. Keep an eye on every Russian client state and their neighbors. Syria-Israel, Georgia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Belarus are probably gonna be the next hot zones in the near term. Then probably the North Caucasus and St. Petersburg before the whole country actually collapses.


Israel hasn’t waited. I expected Georgia to be after Armenia. Also it looks like Moldova might be getting a bit spicy as well. Can’t join NATO with disputed territory, so they might try and undispute it shortly. They’ve already blocked a bunch of stuff from entering the area. It would amuse me if they lost territory due to this, Chechnya is like, “welp, they aren’t looking let’s bail.”


I’m thinking that out of all this Chechnya will bail first. Not sure how Kadyrov will be dealt with or if he could just flip and remain the leader.


Maybe. This feels more like the 1990's